All eyes await the outcome of the Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana — both ruled by the Congress, but which could well land in the BJP’s kitty if the exit polls’ predictions are anything to go by. The counting of votes will start on Sunday at 8 am with trends likely to clear the air over the winner in the next two-three hours.
The stakes are high for Prime Minister Narendra Modi besides the BJP and its helmsman Amit Shah. The outcome will reflect if the wave Modi generated to lead the BJP to a historic victory in the lok Sabha polls still has the same impact. For the BJP and its chief Amit Shah, it will decide if the party’s going solo snapping ties with the Shiv Sena and the Haryana Janhit Congress was a right move, and if the party chief replicates his “Man of the Match” performance in the two States just as he did in Uttar Pradesh.
On the eve of the results, while Maharashtra waited with bated breath, the corridors of power in Chandigarh was abuzz with a change of regime. Given that all the major players went alone fighting each other, there is a lot of curiosity among the political parties as also the people across Maharashtra regarding the nature of verdict.
If the BJP and its four smaller allies manage to cross the majority figure of 145 in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly or even come close to hand shaking distance of 130 to 135 seats, then the next Government formation exercise will be a smooth affair. In effect, a new Government could well be in place in the State before Diwali.
However, if the BJP and its allies fall “30 to 45” seats short of a majority — a scenario that the rival political parties are predicting — then the Government formation exercise will take a fairly long time, may be more than a week to 10 days. The current Assembly expires on November 8.
In Haryana, the sentiments of employees of the State Government are perhaps a true indicator to gauge the mood of the people and the way the political wind is blowing. Employees of the Haryana Civil Secretariat in Chandigarh have already written the Congress off. “It now remains to be seen whether the Congress would be reduced to single digit or gets into double digits or a dozen seats,” said a Director-level officer. Babus in the Secretariat are waiting for the next Government to take over.
All exit polls suggested the rout of the ruling Congress. And Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who had an extended run of almost 10 years, could well be on his way out if the exit pollsters prove to be on point. Political observers say the massive turnout of 76.54 per cent, surpassing the 47-year-old record of 72.65 per cent in 1967 indicates change.
In Maharashtra, the polls are also a litmus test for the Opposition Shiv Sena, which like the BJP contested the polls on its own strength for the first time in 25 years, and its president Uddhav Thackeray, who led the party in a single-handed manner, in the absence of his late father and Sena chief Bal Thackeray.
Though the BJP is fairly confident of the party and its smaller allies crossing the magic figure of 145 seats, informed sources in the party said that its leadership has readied a Plan-B, in the event of the party falling short of number in a big way. No wonder that the BJP’s upcoming leader and one of the chief ministerial contenders Pankaja Munde -- who enjoys a very good rapport with Uddhav Thackeray -- has gone on record saying that if the need arose, her party is open to seeking its erstwhile saffron alliance partner Shiv Sena’s support to form the next Government in the State.
The poll outcome might bring an end to the 15-year-long rule of the erstwhile Congress-NCP alliance. The two erstwhile Democratic Front partners broke their ties and went to the polls as separate political entities. But, both the parties carried with them a huge baggage of anti-incumbency.
The ruling Congress seems reconciled to sitting in the Opposition for the next five years with a blame game having already has begun within its State unit. Senior Congress leader Narayan Rane, who has set his eyes on the post of the leader of the Opposition in the State Assembly, has already turned the heat on former Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan, who is another major contender for the post, for his outturn statement on the eve of polls.