On a day the Centre’s admission about community transmission of coronavirus came, a Government-appointed committee said the Covid-19 pandemic is on decline, after having peaked in mid-September, and can be brought under control by February 2021 if all safety measures like social distancing, masks and handwashing are followed.
Going by the present scenario, by the time the epidemic ends in February next year the total number of infections would be about 105 lakh, the committee said.
The panel said the upcoming festivals and winter
season may increase the susceptibility to the virus but all activities can be resumed provided proper safety protocols are followed. It also found that the impact of labour migration on the total number of infections in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh was minimal. The committee, chaired by IIT Hyderabad professor M Vidyasagar, claimed that in the absence of the lockdown in March, the pandemic would have hit India very hard with a peak load of over 1.40 crore cases arriving in June and death count going up to 25 lakh.
India’s total infections have breached the 75-lakh mark and of them, over 66 lakh patients have recovered. As of now, 1.14 lakh people have died because of the disease.
The panel, however, said further lockdowns were “undesirable” except in localised areas with heavy infection load, but not before cautioning that if the safety measures are relaxed the cases could rise significantly to as many as 26 lakh in a month.
Vidyasagar said, as of today, 30 per cent of the country is projected to have developed antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2, which is “good news” and said as per their mathematical projections, the cumulative mortality from the pandemic in India by the end of February next year would be 0.04 per cent of total cases.
The committee, set up by the Department of Science and Technology, based its assertions using computer models to map the trajectory of the epidemic in the country, but the Union Health Ministry has always been sceptical about such findings.
The 10-member panel, which conducted a study on “Progression of the Covid-19 Pandemic in India: Prognosis and Lockdown Impacts”, has developed an evidence based mathematical model for Covid-19 progression. The national-level ‘super model’ is based on various parameters such as timing of the lockdown, alternative lockdown scenarios, impact of migrant workers returning to their homes, and future course of the pandemic including impact of not following safety protocols.
“If all of us follow these protocols, the pandemic can be controlled by early next year with minimal active symptomatic infections by February-end. We do not yet know the weather-specific perturbations of this pandemic (in general, viruses tend to be more active in colder environments) and the effects of possible future mutations in the virus.
“Hence, the existing personal safety protocols need to continue in full measure. Otherwise we will see a sharp rise in infections. Fresh lockdowns should not be imposed on district and State-wide levels, unless there is imminent danger of the healthcare facilities being overwhelmed,” Vidyasagar said.
“India has one-sixth of the world’s population (one-fifth excluding China), and one-sixth of the reported cases. However, India accounts for only 10 per cent of the world’s deaths, and its case fatality rate of less than 2 per cent is among the lowest in the world,” it said.
“Avoiding congestion especially in closed spaces and special care of those above 65 years and children is even more significant. Personnel with co-morbidities need to be extra cautious,” it said.
The panel is yet to submit its report to the Union Health Ministry, which though have been rejecting such mathematical projections citing “lacunae” in such models as “they just focus on how the virus would behave and not take into account other parameters.”
Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan during press briefings on the Covid-19 status had been stating that “instead of spending a lot of time on these models, focussing on containment, surveillance, testing and treatment will give better results”.