Exit polls predicted huge majority for AAP, but some theorists doubt claims as voters after 3pm were left out for assessment
Exit polls may have predicted an Aam Aadmi Party’s sweep in the Delhi Assembly poll, but empathetic claims by top BJP leadership of a “lotus” bloom has injected an element of interest in the counting proceedings on Tuesday.
The pro-AAP camp will take heart from the fact that many of the exit polls have given it 60 plus seats in the House of 70. The India Today-Axis My India poll, which hit the bull’s eye on more than one occasion in the recent past, has gone to the extent of predicting 68 seats for the AAP in the best possible scenario.
However, both Home Minister Amit Shah and State BJP president Manoj Tiwari don’t agree to the exit polls’ predictions. They have stuck their necks out and claimed that the BJP will get between 45 and 48 seats and comfortably form a Government. The Delhi BJP unit is also reported to have ordered a 47 kg laddoo, hoping they will get no less than 47 seats, sources said.
While a few politicians accept defeat till the last vote is counted, questions are doing the rounds: Why would Amit Shah of all the persons would put his prestige on stake if he believed in the findings of the exit polls?
The skeptics are counting on claims of “late” evening surge of voters to trash the exit polls, saying they captured the voting trend up to only till 3 pm. However, such surge in voting is a universal trend in India and there is no empirical evidence to suggest that even if voters turnout in large number in the evening they would en mass vote for any political party only.
Delhi BJP leaders and their poll managers say Delhiites voted in two phases: The first being between 8 am and 3 pm when the AAP had a clear lead. However, thereafter, BJP’s voters started pouring in, they claimed. Neelkant Bakshi, the political adviser to Delhi BJP president Manoj Tiwari, posted a series of tweets with names of the Assembly constituencies where according to him the BJP will win.
The BJP is also claiming that the entire AAP leadership is unusually quiet after the polling, which is an indication that the party has not got the desired result.
The BJP leaders also claimed that the five per cent decline in the voting compared to the 2015 poll is also a cause of worry for the AAP as they feel that AAP voters did not come out to vote. In 2015, the polling percentage stood at 67.17 while the overall poll percentage in 2020 is 62.59.
Late surge, EVM tampering, silent voters — these are some of the theories doing the rounds on the eve of the counting of votes. For good measures, they have kept interest alive in the counting.