They paint gloomy picture in report to PM, assert Covid can’t be eliminated at present stage
Contrary to the Government’s stand, a group of health experts, including eminent doctors from the AIIMS and ICMR on Covid-19, has said that community transmission stage of the coronavirus infection has been well-established across large sections or sub-populations in the country.
“It is unrealistic to expect that Covid-19 pandemic can be eliminated at this stage given that community transmission is already well-established across large sections or sub-populations in the country,” they said while painting a gloomy picture of the state of the deadly disease in a report which has now been submitted to the Prime Minister.
The report comes amidst spurt of cases in major States like Maharashtra, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana and Bihar.
The report compiled by experts from the Indian Public Health Association (IPHA), Indian Association of Preventive and Social Medicine (IAPSM), and Indian Association of Epidemiologists (IAE) is damning in nature and also slams the Government for failing to take timely adequate steps to contain the disease for which “India is paying a heavy price, both in terms of humanitarian crisis and disease spread.”
“The expected benefit of this stringent nationwide lockdown was to spread out the disease over an extended period of time to flatten the curve and effectively plan and manage so that the healthcare delivery system is not overwhelmed. This seems to have been achieved albeit after lockdown 4.0 with extraordinary inconvenience and disruption of the economy and life of the general public,” said the report.
The experts noted that India’s nationwide lockdown from March 25 till May 31 has been one of the most “stringent” and yet Covid cases have increased exponentially through this phase, from 606 cases on March 25 to 1,38,845 on May 24.
“This draconian lockdown is presumably in response to a modelling exercise from an influential institution which presented a ‘worst-case simulation’.
“The model had come up with an estimated 2.2 million deaths globally. Subsequent events have proved that the predictions of this model were way off the mark,” said the 16-member joint Covid Task Force that included Dr Shashi Kant, former president IAPSM and Head of the Centre for Community Medicine at AIIMS, New Delhi and others.
Also, on the Task Force are Dr Sanjay K Rai, national president, IPHA and Professor, CCM, AIIMS, Dr D C S Reddy, former Professor and Head, Community Medicine, IMS, BHU, Varanasi and Dr Rajesh Kumar, former Professor & Head, DCM&SPH, PGIMER, Chandigarh Dr Reddy and Dr Kant are also members of an ICMR research group on epidemiology and surveillance for Covid-19.
The experts also took exception that the Government did not consult the epidemiologists while making decisions on tackling the pandemic and rather relied overwhelmingly on general administrative bureaucrats.
“Had the Government consulted epidemiologists who had better grasp of disease transmission dynamics compared to modellers, it would have perhaps been better served,” the report said.
From the limited information available in the public domain, the experts said, it seems that the government was primarily advised by clinicians and academic epidemiologists with “limited field training and skills”.
“The engagement with expert technocrats in the areas of epidemiology, public health, preventive medicine and social scientists was limited,” they said.
“The incoherent and often rapidly shifting strategies and policies, especially at the national level, are more a reflection of “afterthought” and catching up phenomenon on part of the policy makers rather than a well thought cogent strategy with an epidemiologic basis,” they said.