After two successive rain deficient years, weather experts have predicted a “good” monsoon this year — about 89 cms, which is 100 per cent to 102 per cent of normal. This is due to drop in El Nino pattern, which may go below further by May-end and gradually become neutral.
The weakening El Nino phenomenon is expected to make way for its reverse counterpart la Nina, when the temperatures of the Pacific could cool abnormally and bring plentiful rain in various Asian countries, including India.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to come out with its first official prediction on
monsoon during the last week of April.
During the last two successive years, monsoon was deficient by 14 per cent and 12 per cent respectively. When rainfall deficit in a year is 10 per cent or more in a monsoon season, it is considered as a meteorological drought year. Over the last two years, rain was particularly insufficient in the regions of northern Karnataka, Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, Jharkhand and parts of Uttar Pradesh.
According to weather experts, this was due to severe condition of El Nino, which was above two notches since the last monsoon. The current El Nino spell has been one of the longest and the strongest ever. This is characterised by unusual warming of the sea surface in equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is known to suppress rainfall over the Indian region besides other countries. The last year witnessed one of the strongest El Nino spells in 50 years that led to such a rain deficient year.
However, as per experts, the severity of the phenomenon dropped last week to be in the category of a moderate El Nino. This is expected to decline further at the end of May, paving the way for a normal monsoon. In the rainy season, extending for four months from June- September, rain in June is expected to be the maximum.
The weather experts have given more reasons for the farmers to cheer up. Declining El Nino, according to them, is likely to pave the way for la Nina that occurs due to extensive cooling of the central and eastern tropical regions of Pacific Ocean.
The last la Nina episode was seen in 2011-12, which followed the 2009-10 El Nino. The probability of the emergence of la Nina conditions between August and September augurs well for rain in India, said the experts.
Meanwhile, the IMD has predicted a hotter summer than last year. The mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in all the sub-divisions of the country are likely to be above normal this summer. The average temperature is expected to rise by at least 1 degree Celsius, particularly in North-Western parts of the country. Further, the frequency of heat waves is also expected to be higher than normal in central and north-west India during the season.