The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in India started on February 15 and could last until the end of May witnessing a peak in mid-April this year, a research report released by the State Bank of India (SBI) said on Thursday.
Cautioning that the country could see an addition of 25 lakh cases during this period, it said mass vaccination and not local lockdown, as is being imposed by some States, is the only solution to curb the surge.
The 28-page report said localised lockdowns or restrictions have been “ineffective” and that mass vaccination is the “only hope” to win the battle against the pandemic.
“Considering the number of days from the current level of daily new cases to the peak level during the first wave, India might reach the peak in the second half of April,” it said.
Focusing on the economic indicators, the SBI report said the business activity index, based on high frequency indicators, has declined in the last week, adding that the impact of the lockdown or restrictions imposed by certain States might become visible next month.
Currently, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Punjab, Uttarakhand are some of the States in the country which have imposed night curfew and shut business entities in some of their cities reporting an increase in cases.
The report also calls for an increase in the pace of vaccination across States. Increasing daily vaccination from the current 34 lakh to 40-45 lakh per day would mean that inoculation of citizens over 45 years can be completed in four months from now.
So far, nearly 5 crore people have been vaccinated. With an attempt to bring more beneficiaries under the inoculation drive launched from January 16, the Government has widened the ambit from April 1 to include those above 45 even if they have no co-morbidities.