The by-elections to four lok Sabha and nine Assembly seats, spread over six States and one Union Territory, on Saturday would be the first major test for the Modi Government and the State Governments post-demonetisation. The “surgical strike” on Rs1,000 and Rs500 notes by the Modi Government may have an impact on the poll results as the issue has generated a high degree of heat and is currently debated inside and outside the Parliament.
While the AIADMK showing in the absence of Jayalalithaa will be keenly observed, whether the BJP and Assam Chief Minister Sarbanand Sonowal continue to retain their popularity gained during the Assembly polls in May this year will also be keenly watched.
The by-elections were held in Assam, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry (Union Territory). The lok Sabha constituencies of lakhimpur (Assam), Cooch Behar and Tamluk (West Bengal) and Shahdol (Madhya Pradesh) went to bypolls. Counting of votes will take place on November 22.
The polling percentage reported by the Election Commission was 61% in Assam, 81% in West Bengal, 68.7% in Madhya Pradesh, 90% in Tripura, 72% in Arunachal Pradesh, and 83.84% in Tamil Nadu . The highest turnout was reported from Tripura’s Khowai Assembly constituency, where 94 per cent voters exercised their franchise.
The poll result to lakhimpur lok Sabha seat, earlier held by the incumbent Chief Minister of Assam Sarbananda Sonowal (now an MlA from Majuli Assembly seat), would also be an indicative of the performance of Sonowal heading the first BJP dispensation in the State that took over on May 25 this year. The Baithalanso Assembly constituency in Assam will decide the fate of eight contestants. An estimated 16,91,313 voters, including 8,21,199 women, are expected to cast their franchise in two seats.
Another interesting bypoll outcome awaited is from Nellithope Assembly constituency in Puducherry where the key contest is between Congress nominee and Chief Minister V Narayanasamy, a non- member of the House, and AIADMK candidate Om Sakthi Segar.
The poll result in this constituency will be keenly watched against the backdrop of AIADMK supremo and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa’s current illness that may generate a ‘sympathy wave’ for her party’s candidate.
In Arunachal Pradesh, which has witnessed political instability in the recent times with controversial changes of Chief Ministers, BJP hopes to win the Hayuliang Assembly seat. Presently, BJP’s ally People’s Party of Arunachal is ruling the frontier state.
In West Bengal by-elections to Cooch Behar and Tamluk lok Sabha constituencies and in Monteswar Assembly constituency had turned electorally vibrant in the light of demonetisation and its alleged fallout on the public. Ruling Trinamool Congress, BJP, left Front and Congress fielded their candidates in all the three seats. Although the Congress and CPI(M)-led left Front had together contested the Assembly polls held earlier this year, the two decided to part company in this round of by-elections.
By-elections were held in Shahdol lok Sabha constituency and Nepanagar Assembly seats in Madhya Pradesh. Both the seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST) category and retaining them will boost the BJP. But, if it loses any one of them it will be construed as the negative fallout of demonetisation move, observers feel.
In Tamil Nadu, polls for Thanjavur and Aravakkurichi and bypoll in Thirupparankundram and in Nellithope (in Puducherry) Assembly constituencies were held even as Chief Minister Jayalalithaa looked set to return soon to assume office again with the doctors shifting her out of ICU. The Congress is hoping it will have no problem in winning the seat despite being wary of a probable ‘sympathy wave’ for Amma.
Bypolls were also held in two Tripura Assembly seats - Barjala and Khowai. The Barjala (SC reserved) seat fell vacant following the resignation of Congress MlA Jitendra Sarkar due to internal squabble in the party, while the death of veteran CPI-M leader Samir Deb necessitated the by-poll in Khowai seat.