The BJP is expected to maintain its hold over Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home turf, Gujarat. Exit polls conducted by various agencies uniformly predicted between 99 and 135 seats for the BJP and 47 to 86 seats for the Congress in 182-member Gujarat Assembly. Today’s Chanakya, which had got the 2014 lok Sabha projection right, says the BJP will win two-third majority.
In the outgoing 13th Gujarat legislative Assembly, the BJP had 115 members and the Congress 43.
India Today and Zee News give 99-113 seats to the BJP and 68-82 seats to the Congress; Times Now and Republic give 108-109 seats to the BJP and 70-71 seats to the Congress; ABP gives BJP 91-99 seats, Congress 78-86 seats. Sahara Samay and India News predict 110-120 seats for the BJP and 65-75 seats for the Congress; News Nation gives the BJP 124-128, and Congress 52-56.
Regional trend: The Axis-My-India exit poll shows the Congress ahead of the BJP in terms of seat share in Saurashtra and Kachchh region and also in north Gujarat. Out of the 54 seats of Saurashtra and Kachchh, the Congress is shown leading in 30 seats while the BJP will bag 23. In north Gujarat, the Congress leads on 18 of the 32 seats in the region and the BJP leads on only 14.
According to the exit polls, the BJP has comfortable leads in central and south Gujarat and in Ahmedabad. Out of the 40 seats of central Gujarat, the BJP is shown in the lead in 29 seats while the Congress leads on only 11. In the 35 seats of south Gujarat, the BJP leads on 25 seats while the Congress leads on only 10.
According to ABP-CSDS survey, in Saurashtra, the BJP will win 31-37 seats and the Congress may get 16-22 seats.
But India TV exit polls predicted that the BJP will sweep Saurashtra and Kutch by winning about 34 of the 54 seats.
Saurashtra-Kutch region sends the largest number of MlAs, 54, to the Gujarat Assembly. Out of these, BJP won 42 seats in 2012 Assembly polls, Congress 10, Gujarat Parivartan Party 1 and NCP 1. Ahead of lok Sabha polls, the GPP merged with the BJP hence BJP improved its tally.
IndiaTV-VMR exit poll predicts overwhelming victory for the BJP in north Gujarat as well. The ruling party is
likely to win 33 seats in the region, while the Congress may get 19 seats.
In the 2012 Assembly polls, the BJP had won 33 out of 53 seats from the region spread across seven districts. Remaining 20 seats had gone to the Opposition Congress. Ahmedabad district alone is having lion’s share of 21 seats — 16 urban and five rural. Of these the BJP won 17 seats reducing the Opposition to mere four. Barring Ahmedabad district, the Congress and the BJP won almost similar number of seats 17 and 15 respectively in the rest of north Gujarat.
The Axis-My-India exit poll give the BJP comfortable leads in central and south Gujarat and in Ahmedabad. Out of the 40 seats of central Gujarat the BJP is shown in the lead in 29 seats, while the Congress leads in only 11. In the 35 seats of south Gujarat, the BJP leads on 25 seats, while the Congress leads on only 10. According to ABP-CSDS survey, the BJP will win in south Gujarat with 21-27 seats and the Congress will get 9-13 seats.
In 2012 Assembly polls, the BJP had won 28 seats out of 35 seats in the region. The Congress had got six and one was won by JD(U) candidate Chhotu Vasava from tribal constituency Jhagadia.
In central Gujarat, of the 40 seats spread across seven districts, the BJP had won 22 seats. The Congress did comparatively better by securing 17 seats compared to other regions.
Remaining one was captured by Sharad Pawar’s political outfit Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Margin of victory in the 11 seats of the region was narrow and seven among them was won by the ruling BJP.
The caste wise break-down of the Gujarat exit poll throws up interesting insights into the mind of the Gujarati voters. Out of the 12 leva Patel dominated seats of Gujarat, the Congress is shown in the lead on eight, while the BJP leads on four. The Congress leads in three of the four Kadva Patel dominated seats in the State. This shows that the Hardik Patel factor did hurt the BJP’s prospects on the Patidar-dominated seats of the State, which were earlier considered BJP strongholds.
The alliance with Alpesh Thakore seems to have helped the Congress in the Thakore dominated seats of Gujarat. Axis My India shows the Congress in the lead in 13 out of the 25 Thakore dominated seats, while the BJP leads in 12.
According to exit polls, GST and demonetisation did not affect BJP’s chances in urban areas as the party is predicted to win 42 out of the 55 seats of urban Gujarat. The BJP leaders were right in claiming that the traders may have been unhappy with the party over the issue opf demonetisation, but they would not ditch the Prime Minister. The Congress is projected to bag only 13 urban seats. The Congress’ failure to make any dent in commercial centres like Surat, Vadodara and Ahmedabad, which together contribute more than 50 seats, is also seen to confirm the fact that business class has stood by Modi.