The much-awaited exit polls on Saturday had a clear outcome: There’s no runaway winner in Karnataka. And as has been the pre-poll predictions, the JD(S) is set to play kingmaker in the hung Assembly. But then, most exit polls have given the BJP the edge over the Congress.
If the predictions for the fractured mandate hold good, it would witness the Congress and the BJP in a mad scramble to woo former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda’s JD(S), which is predicted in most surveys to be winning over 30 seats in the 224-member Assembly.
The exit polls have largely predicted a hung Assembly in Karnataka as a majority of them even on the higher side of their count did not see either of the two major parties, the BJP and the Congress, reaching the majority mark of 113 seats.
While the results would be out on May 15, the parties are likely to firm up their strategies by then going by the exit polls.
The India-Today-Axis survey is one of the few which has given the Congress a clear majority with 118 seats on the higher side and 106 on the lower side. The India Today has restricted the BJP to 79-92 seats and predicted JD(S), the third key player in the Assembly poll, scoring 22-30 seats. Just as the India Today, the survey by Times Now-VMR - the channel collaborated with two separate agencies - too put its money on the Congress projecting it to be scoring 90-103 seats with the BJP gaining 80 to 93 seats and the JD(S) 31-39 seats.
In contrast, the ABP News predicted the BJP emerging as the single largest party in the range of 99-109 as against the Congress’ 97-99 with the JD(S) collecting 21-30 seats. The Republic TV-Jan ki Baat exit poll also predicted the BJP as the winner with 95-114 seats and gave 73-82 seats to the Congress and 32-43 seats to the JD(S).
The Times Now-Today’s Chanakya survey was the only one to give any party the maximum seats as it predicted a high of 120 seats for the BJP, seven more than the magic figure.
If the NEWS X-CNS News forecast saw the BJP as the single largest party in the range of 102-110 seats with the Congress restricted to 72-79 and the JD(S) with 35-39 seats, the NDTV too saw the BJP emerging as the single largest party with 98 seats, the Congress 88 and the JD(S) winning 33 seats.
All exit-polls have consistently given the JD(S) more than 30 seats. The JD(S) had won 40 seats - as many as that of the BJP hit hard with the ouster of its tallest State leader BS Yeddyurappa - in the 2013 Assembly polls. The Congress had then gained a clear majority with 122 seats.
Soon after the voting completed, exit polls rolled out their assessment on the intensely fought elections which will decide the political fate of the State’s caste warlords like Congress Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and BJP’s chief ministerial candidate Yeddyurappa.
These two leaders apart, the JD(S) patriarch and former PM Dewe Gowda would also be hoping that the election results may revive the declining fortunes of his party.
The high-stake poll could well also have an impact on the leadership of the Congress president Rahul Gandhi who had extensively campaigned in the State which remains one of the only four remaining States/Union Territories (Punjab, Mizoram, Puducherry) having a Congress Government. The outcome in Karnataka will also have major significance for the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi with lok Sabha poll 2019 round the corner. A win in Karnataka would be another feather in the cap of the BJP that may give further steam and impetus to its mission 2019 but a defeat may suggest the failing of Modi’s magic as Prime Minister despite his over 20 rallies in the State.