Despite last minute blitzkrieg by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP lost the Rajasthan Assembly election, failing to break the trend which continues in the State for the past 20 years.
As per results, the Congress is set to form the Government in the State as the party has won over 99 seat of the 199 seat while the BJP managed to retain only 73 seats. The BSP, CPI (Marxist) and others have managed to win 27 seats.
Now the question is who will be the Chief Minister — Ashok Gehlot or Sachin Pilot? The Congress central leadership has already directed its elected MLAs to assemble in Jaipur on Wednesday. According to sources in the Congress, party president Rahul Gandhi will take a call on the CM face by Wednesday. Gehlot is seen as a clear front-runner.
The voting share analysis shows the BJP’s votes have fallen from 45.2 per cent in 2013 to 38.8 per cent now. It was much higher at nearly 55 per cent in 2014, when the party won all 25 Lok Sabha seats from the State.
On the other hand, the Congress has improved its vote share from 33.1 per cent in 2013 to 39.2 per cent in 2018. It had managed to get nearly 30 per cent votes despite losing on all seats in last parliamentary elections.
Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot have all won their respective seats of Jhalrapatan, Tonk and Sardarpura. The Congress has banked on the strong anti-incumbency factor, while the BJP relied on the Raje’s performance and charisma of Modi and hoped to break the State’s tradition of having Chief Ministers of alternate parties for every Assembly election since 1993.
Raje won her constituency in Jhalrapatan defeating Congress candidate Manvendra Singh by a margin of 34,980 votes. Singh, who recently joined the Congress, is son of BJP stalwart Jaswant Singh. Congress Rajasthan unit chief Pilot won from Tonk seat, defeating BJP’s Yoonus Khan only Muslim face in the BJP State unit by 54,179 votes.
It was the first Assembly elections for 41-year-old Pilot, a two-time Member of Parliament, and he won from the Muslim dominated seat comfortably. Two- time CM, Gehlot won the Sardarpura seat by a margin of over 40,000 votes. He defeated Shambhu Singh Khetasar of BJP.
Political experts said Vasundhara Raje’s personal traits are believed to be one of the main reasons behind the BJP’s defeat in Rajasthan Assembly election. Her image of behaving likes a Maharani’ and being inaccessible did not go along well with the voters. The slogan doing the rounds is”Modi Tujh Se Bair Nahin, Rani Teri Khair Nahin” ( Modi, we don’t dislike you, but Queen (Raje) we will not spare you.)
Caste groups having a small voting percentage are likely to go with new alliances for electoral benefits, as they had done in the past. Communities such as Rajputs and Gujjars, who constitute 9 per cent each of the State’s population, have witnessed a major churning.
Besides, the Rajputs went against the BJP particularly after the killing of gangster Anandpal Singh by police in an encounter. He was popular among a large section of his caste people.
Anger against the film, Padmaavat, turned the Rajputs against Vasundhara and the BJP. On the issue of SC/ST act, the upper caste (Rajputs and Brahmin) went against the ruling BJP in the state.
Rahul’s promise of farm loan waiver within 10 days of the Congress Government coming to power has been one of the most important factors for the BJP’s defeat. The farmers, suffering from distress, seem to have lapped up Rahul’s promise. The Vasundhara Government seems to have failed to dispel the notion that the farmers were under severe stress in her State. The Bhamashah Health Insurance Scheme in the health sector, undertaken by the Government also failed to woo voters towards it.
As many as 13 of 19 Ministers in the outgoing Vasundhara Government have lost the Assembly elections in Rajasthan as results and trends brought electoral reverses for the ruling BJP.
Raje (Jhalrapatan), Home Minister Gulab Chand Kataria (Udaipur), Education Minister Vasundev Devnani (Ajmer North), Women and Child Development Minister Anita Bhadel (Ajmer South), Parliamentary Affairs Minister Rajendra Rathore (Churu) and Higher Education Minister Kiran Maheshwari (Rajsamand) have retained their respective seats.
Among the Ministers who lost the elections are: Agriculture Minister Prabhu Lal Saini (Anta), Food & Civil Supply Minister Baboo Lal Verma (Baran-Atru), Revenue Minister Amra Ram (Pachpadra), Tourism Minister Krishnendra Kaur (Nadbai), Housing and Urban Development Minister Srichand Kriplani (Nimahera).
Also among those who lost are Water Resources Minister Rampratap (Hanumangarh), Social Justice Minister Arun Chaturvedi (Civil Lines), Industries Minister Rajpal Singh (Jhotwara), Cooperative Minister Ajay Singh (Degana), Gaupalan Minister Otaram Devasi (Sirohi) and Transport Minister Yoonus Khan (Tonk).
Congress candidates Johri Lal Meena (Rajgarh-Laxmangarh), Madan Prajapapat (Pachpadra), Zahida Khan (Kaman), Ramlal Jat (Mandal) and Prashant Bairwa (Niwai) won. BSP’s Sandeep Kumar (Tijara) and Wajib Ali (Nagar) have also won. CPI (Marxist) also won two seats.
Rajasthan has a 200-member Assembly but polling on Alwar’s Ramgarh constituency was postponed following the death of the BSP candidate there. A party now needs to win 100 seats to form Government in the State.
Independents have improved their tally from 8.2 per cent to 9.5 per cent, while bagging larger number of seats.