The March 23 elections to 58 Rajya Sabha seats, including 10 from Uttar Pradesh, six from Maharashtra, five from Madhya Pradesh and three from Rajasthan, give hope to the BJP that it may together with ‘friendly parties’ will reach a position to push key Bills in Parliament without being on the absolute mercy of the Congress-led Opposition.
After it assumed power at the Centre on May 26, 214, gaining absolute majority in the lok Sabha, the BJP had to struggle in the Upper House where the Opposition blocked several key legislations, including the recent triple talaq Bill.
The biennial polls to RS from 16 States could give BJP, with the help of allies and ‘neutral parties’, an edge in the Upper House, according to the party leaders.
In August 2017, the BJP already replaced Congress as the single-largest party in the Upper House with 58 seats as against the latter’s 54 seats.
BJP (58) plus JDU (7), TDP (6), SS (3), SAD (3), PDP (2), Sikkim Democratic Party (1) RPI (1) Bodoland Peoples Front ((1), Nagaland Peoples Front (1) currently adds up to 83 seats out of total 245 strength of the RS. An addition of 15 to 20 seats of the 58 seats which go to poll on March 23 may take the NDA tally above 100. The BJP hopes that it may gain the support of AIADMK 13 and BJD 8 seats in RS, and that could bring it in a position to take on the Opposition on equal footing in the House of elders. There are eight nominated members in the Upper House.
The BJP is confident that in UP, where together its allies have 325 out of 403 Assembly seats, it could win eight out of 10 seats going to polls (against the one seat it currently has ). In Rajasthan, the BJP could bag all three seats (against currently one it holds) and in Maharashtra together with ally Shiv Sena it hopes to corner six seats (against the two they have).
In Bihar, the BJP-led-NDA may lose three of the six seats it presently holds in the State. Former Bihar Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi on Sunday demanded that his party be allotted one RS seat in the upcoming elections failing which the party would not support the BJP-led coalition in the next one lok Sabha and two Assembly bypolls.
In Gujarat, the BJP may retain two of the four seats with lesser numbers in the present Assembly.
The States from where RS members are retiring are UP (10), Andhra, Odisha, Telangana and Rajasthan (three each), Bihar and Maharashtra (six each), Bengal and Madhya Pradesh (five each), Karnataka and Gujarat (four each), Jharkhand (two), Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal and Uttarakhand (one each).
BJP leaders hope that along with allies and other parties like AIADMK, TRS, BJD and YSR, they will have an upper hand in the RS. The equation of these parties with the NDA may, however, change in the coming months with State elections and lok Sabha polls closing by .
From BJP’s side terms of several Union Ministers, including Arun Jaitley, Prakash Javadekar, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Dharmendra Pradhan, J P Nadda, Thaawar Chand Gehlot and Ramdas Athawale are ending. While most of these top leaders would be re-nominated, there may be some fresh names from the party also joining the upper house team of the BJP.
In Bengal, Trinamool Congress MPs Nadimul Haq and Vivek Gupta are set to complete their RS term. Kunal Ghosh, who was suspended by the party, is also set to complete his term. Another senior leader, Mukul Roy, had resigned from the Rajya Sabha after defecting to BJP. CPM’s Tapan Kumar Sen is also set to complete his term.
The TMC is likely to field new candidates to replace Ghosh and Roy. Film actress Jaya Bachchan is a front-runner, reports indicated. The TMC hopes that on its own it may win four seats and expects a contest for the fifth seat.