Options galore in hung J&K
Jammu & Kashmir on Tuesday threw up a fractured mandate and many interesting possibilities for Government formation as the PDP and the BJP emerged the main contenders for power, winning 28 and 25 seats respectively. But they were woefully short of the magic figure of 44 needed to form the Government in the 87-member State Assembly.
While backchannel dialogues opened up to test political waters, the nature of verdict showed that only PDP-BJP combine could provide a stable coalition in the State. However, the conflicts of respective agenda of the two parties would work as speed-breaker that they would have to negotiate to form a stable Government in the border State.
With the NC springing a surprise by offering support to bitter-rival PDP and the Congress ready to embrace the Mufti Mohammad Sayeed-led outfit, there could be many likely or unlikely combinations that might be explored in J&K by the stakeholders.
Buoyed by the verdict, the BJP indicated it would like to be “an insider” rather than “an outsider” in the Government. Within hours of poll results, BJP president Amit Shah said “all options” are open for his party, PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti maintained her party would take time to decide its course of action, and a routed Congress (12) expressed readiness to back the PDP. The outgoing ruling National Conference (15) of Omer Abdullah claimed it had not been approached by any party, but added he has kept his option open.
There are around six ‘others’ — former separatist Sajad Ghani lone’s People’s Conference and independents —who have won Assembly elections and expected to play a crucial role in any ruling combination, barring PDP-BJP grouping, if any.
The process of Government formation in J&K may face many twists and turns as there are no two ‘natural allies’ to reach magic number. “All options are open. The option of forming a BJP Government is open. The option of supporting somebody is also open. The option of joining some Government is also open... All three options are open,” Amit Shah told reporters.
BJP’s decision will also depend on initiatives taken by other parties, Shah said. “Discussions will take place in BJP’s Parliamentary Board meet on Wednesday. The party will take a final call,” Shah said, while congratulating the BJP workers for making huge gains in J&K. “As the current figures stand, in terms of percentage, the BJP has got maximum vote share in J&K,” Shah said. “We have made huge gains in J&K; the BJP has emerged as a major player in J&K,” he added.
Talking about the poor performance of the Congress in Jharkhand and J&K, Shah said, “Voters have rejected the Congress. The country has reached one more State closer to Congress-mukt bharat.”
like the BJP, the PDP appeared to be keeping options open in forming the next Government in the State. “We will not cobble together a Government by hook or crook. It will take time to explore possibilities and formation of Government to meet the people’s expectations and good governance. It is difficult to say when it will materialise,” Mehbooba Mufti told newspersons in Srinagar.
Refusing to disclose the strategy, she claimed her party would not cobble together numbers just for the sake of arithmetic. “We will explore possibilities of forming Government that will be credible. We are in the process of exploring possibilities and we will do what is in the best interest of people of Kashmir. We are looking for a Government that is based on an agenda of good governance. It’s going to take time,” she said.
It would be a tough call for the PDP to align with the BJP because of the diametrically opposite outlook of these parties on the hard political realities about Kashmir issue. The PDP has been harping on the political settlement of Jammu & Kashmir, safeguard of the Article 370, removal of AFSPA and advocates self-rule, a vague solution that involves Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and encompasses dialogue with Pakistan and separatists for the final resolution of Kashmir.
The BJP, on the contrary, wants complete merged of J&K (including PoK part) with the Union of India. Though with an eye to make inroads into Kashmir politics, the party brushed aside its known stance on Article 370 for the time being, but soon after the poll it said there was no change of stand on the repeal of Article 370. Uniform Civil Code and recent forced conversion are also issued on which the two sides will have different takes.
The PDP is seeking to replace the NC and its main bastion is Kashmir valley, though it made inroads in Jammu as well. The party wants to play a long political role. In that backdrop, it is a hard decision for PDP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed to align with the BJP. However, the path of development on which all parties claim to have fought the elections, would offer a reason to Mufti to align with the BJP. Mufti knows that ruling J&K without BJP’s partnership would be like facing a double-edged sword. Handling a strong BJP Opposition both at the Centre and the State is not an easy option. Perhaps due to this fact, Mufti has showered encomiums on Narendra Modi.
The other scenario that can emerge is that the Congress offers outside support to the PDP. The Congress has already indicated that it is ready to support the PDP to keep the communal forces (read BJP) out of power. The Congress and the PDP have been partners in the past who fell apart on a bitter note in the aftermath of 2008 Amarnath agitation. However, the predicament with this coalition would be that the two parties would require some more members to reach the magic 44 number.
In this scenario, the People’s Conference of Sajjad lone, who won two seats from Kupwara becomes all the more important. lone has indicated that he would be comfortable with anyone to become partner in power. He has already shown his proximity with the BJP. Insiders say that he would not shy away joining PDP-Congress combine, if he gets a remarkable deal.
The NC has not left the race altogether. With 15 seats in its kitty, the party seems to be upbeat because it has upstaged the predictions of the pollsters. Though Omar Abdullah has repeatedly rejected alliance with the BJP, the option is not altogether ruled out. Abdullah has even put the PDP on notice when he said that the party would discuss the option of giving outside support to the PDP if he receives a call from Mufti. This is seen as cleaver ploy by the NC. Should the PDP align with the BJP, Omar could use it to whip the party in public saying that he had offered the support to form a ‘secular” Government.
“It was for the PDP to approach him. I don’t rule out or rule in anything hereafter,” Omar said. Meanwhile, Congress spokesperson Ajoy Kumar said his party was not averse to supporting PDP to form a Government in J&K. The BJP’s Parliamentary Board in its meeting Wednesday will weigh its options in the State and also deliberate on its chief ministerial candidate in Jharkhand, where it is set to form the Government.