When the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) chose April 14 — the birth anniversary of Dalit icon Dr Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar — as the occasion to launch its poll campaign in Bihar, the message was clear: The NDA will go all out to woo the Dalit voters.
For quite some time, the BJP and the RSS have held a series of seminars, public functions and published a great deal of literature on the life and time of Ambedkar. Their leaders have also made the right noises to uphold the legacy of the Dalit leader in an obvious attempt to reach out to a section of the voters, who in the past were beholden either to the Congress or regional satraps.
This long-term strategy to expand its vote base is also finding resonance in Bihar where the party has roped in former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi to lead its push among the Mahadalits, which form 11 per cent of the Scheduled Caste population and are the poorest and the most exploited among the SCs. On the other hand, the BJP pins its hope on lJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan to deliver a large chunk of his Dalit (Paswan) voters to the NDA kitty.
But the story may not be as simple as it looks. Undoubtedly, Ram Vilas Paswan is the foremost leader of the Paswans, who form nearly five per cent of the Scheduled Caste votes. He has the proven ability to get their votes transferred any alliance he does business with. There is no leader of any eminence or clout from the Dalit caste in the Nitish-led ‘grand alliance’, and as such the NDA can be assured of gaining bulk of votes from his segment.
But the Mahadalit field is wide open. Despite trying to give himself a larger-than-life image, Jitan Ram Manjhi has no track record of influencing the Mahadalit votes other than that of his immediate caste men — the Mushars. He may claim to be the champions of the Mahadalits, but his newly floated outfit — Hindustani Awam Morcha — is dominated by leaders of the upper castes.
Secondly, the Mahadalits are a badly divided lot and they don’t vote together as Paswans do.
A host of local factors and personalities could impact the Mahadalit voting pattern much to the surprise of pollsters. Take, for example, Mayawati’s decision to contest all the seats in Bihar. The Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) has some pockets of influence in the district bordering Uttar Pradesh, and it has traditionally targeted Chamar voters, who do not see eye to eye with the Paswans. In the 2010 Assembly polls, the BSP got 3.21 votes, which is just a shade less than one-third of the entire Mahadalit votes.
Similarly, the CPI(M-l) has traditionally capitalised on the bitter social divide that existed in the Central Bihar for decades. Here Ranvir Sena, the private army of upper caste landlords and Naxal outfits (consisting mostly Yadavs and Dalits) killed each other by the thousands and gave the region the dubious sobriquet of the `flaming fields of Bihar’. The guns have now fallen silent, but the age-old distrust and bitterness will linger on for years. This historic upper caste-Dalit divide is being stoked by the CPI(M-l) and the Nitish-led `grand alliance’.
While the NDA could hope to walk away with a major chunk of Dalit and Mahadalit votes, it will be naive to think the Nitish-led alliance will not get any backing of this segment. Janata Dal (U) has several prominent Dalit faces, including Assembly speaker Udai Narain Choudhary and Food and Civil Supply Minister Shyam Rajak. Significantly, the JD(U) has four Paswans and 15 Mahadalit MlAs in the current Assembly, a fact that speaks for itself about its hold among the Mahadalits.
Under the scenario, while the NDA can hope to corner most of the Dalit votes, it will be interesting to whether either of the two alliances is able to consolidate the Mahadalit voters on their sides.