It is official now! After two successive years of drought, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the nation this year will have a fair distribution of rainfall across major parts of the country and it will be a “good year” for crops. “The rains in the country would be 106 per cent of the long-term average this year,” said the IMD in its forecast released on Tuesday. This is due to the weakening El Nino gradually giving way to El Nina phenomenon. According to Director IMD lS Rathore, there are 94 per cent chances of the country receiving normal to above normal rainfall, while there is only 1 per cent probability of deficient rainfall. Rains in the second half of the monsoon season are expected to be in excess. The IMD’s next official forecast is expected in June.
Rathore further said that even the regions of Marathwada and Bundelkhand, among the worst hit by drought, will receive sufficient rainfall this year.
However, even during good monsoon conditions there may still remain certain pockets where slightly less than normal monsoon can be expected. These include certain regions of North East India, parts of Tamil Nadu and adjoining Rayalseema district. The monsoon is considered normal when the rainfall is 96 per cent to 104 per cent of the long Period Average (lPA) and is considered above normal when it is 105 per cent to 110 per cent of lPA.
Explaining the phenomenon, the weather scientists said that the weakening El Nino is expected to give way to its reverse counterpart la Nina when the temperatures of the Pacific cool abnormally, bringing plentiful rains in various Asian countries including India. As per the latest forecast from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Climate Model, El Nino conditions will gradually weaken till the first half of the monsoon season and neutral conditions likely to get established thereafter, said the experts.
According to them, analysis of previous data suggests that monsoon over the country, as a whole was deficient or below normal during 65 per cent of the El Nino years. However, during 71 per cent of the years followed by El Nino years, monsoon was normal and above.
During the last two successive years of 2015 and 2014, monsoon was deficient by 14 per cent and 12 per cent respectively. When rainfall deficit in a year is 10 per cent or more in a monsoon season, it is considered as a meteorological drought year. Rains were particularly insufficient in the regions of northern Karnataka, Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, Jharkhand and parts of Uttar Pradesh.