India has reason to cheer as Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Government has cemented its position as one of the fastest-growing major economies, with quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth moving upward to 7.9 per cent in March 2016 as against a projected 7.2 per cent in 2015, according to Gover-nment data released on Tuesday. The annual GDP growth rate is now 7.6 per cent.
Registering one of the highest rates of quarterly growth in recent years, despite slow investment activities, the Government said the growth rate could go up to 8 per cent in the current fiscal on the back of good monsoon. The farm sector also rebounded as against a contraction in the previous year, although the rate of expansion was low at 1.2 per cent in 2015-16.
Commenting on GDP numbers, Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das said, “The various measures that the Government has been taking in the last couple of years are beginning to show results and overall there are green shoots. This year, hopefully, with good monsoon we should look at a growth closer to 8 per cent.”
The industry also lauded the numbers and expressed hope that better monsoon and further reforms will help expand the economy at a faster pace. According to the data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the growth in manufacturing and farm sectors during the fourth quarter accelerated to 9.3 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.
The core sector data in April, too, indicated momentum in economic activity as it grew at the rate of 8.5 per cent, the highest in the last four years. However, Finance Secretary Ashok lavasa said, “We should work towards seeing this (GDP) number grow.
We are focusing on capital spending in infrastructure and social spending. Growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2015-16 at 7.9 per cent almost hits the magical 8 per cent mark. Good days ahead,” NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman Arvind Panagariya Tweeted.
The CSO data has also revised the GDP growth rate for previous quarters of 2015-16 with 7.5 per cent for April-June, 7.6 per cent for July-September and 7.2 per cent for October-December. The 7.6 per cent growth rate for 2015-16 is the same as projected by the CSO in its advance estimates of national income earlier in February this year.
In line with the Government’s expectation, India Inc is hopeful that the economy of the country will retain its upward trend in the coming years too. “The economy would achieve close to 8 per cent growth in 2016-17, riding on the crest of strong macro-economic fundamentals, positive business sentiment and pro-growth monetary and fiscal policies,” said CII director general Chandrajit Banerjee.
However, FICCI president Harshavardhan Neotia said, “Growth of 7.6 per cent for the fiscal year 2015-16 is in line with the advance estimates...In the current global economic scenario, this is a commendable performance and comes on the back of comprehensive reform measures undertaken by the Government.”
As per the CSO data, GDP of the mining and quarrying segment grew by 8.6 per cent in the last quarter of 2015-16 whereas electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services recorded a growth rate of 9.3 per cent. Similarly, the construction sector grew at 4.5 per cent, trade, hotels, transport and communication at 9.9 per cent, financial, real estate and professional services at 9.1 per cent, and public administration, Defence and other services at 6.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2015-16.
“The per capita income at current prices during 2015-16 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs 93,293 as compared to the first revised estimate for the year 2014-15 of Rs 86,879 showing a rise of 7.4 per cent,” it said.
The GDP, it added, at current prices for 2015-16 is estimated at Rs 135.76-lakh crore, showing a growth rate of 8.7 per cent over the first revised estimates of GDP for the year 2014-15 of Rs 124.88-lakh crore. The real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for 2015-16 is now estimated at Rs 113.50-lakh crore showing a growth rate of 7.6 per cent over the first revised estimates of GDP for 2014-15 of Rs 105.52-lakh crore.