The first phase of elections on Saturday in Uttar Pradesh, covering the communally-sensitive western parts of the State, will be a litmus test for the BJP and the BSP even as it will give the first indication of the party likely to be the eventual winner.
The so-called Jat land and the sugar belt of the northern India, covering some sensitive districts like Muzaffarnagar, Shamli, Baghpat, Meerut, Etah, Agra, Gautam Buddha Nagar and Mathura and with 2.59-crore electorate, will vote for 73 Assembly seats in 15 districts of western UP.
The Muslims and Jats would be the deciding factor in this phase. While the Jats solidly backed the BJP during the 2014 lok Sabha elections, this time the BJP is not too sure about their wholehearted support.
This has led its rivals, the BSP, the SP-Congress and the RlD, to go all out to woo the dominant community in the region. With the RlD in particular queering the pitch for the BJP while the Jat votes could split, the Muslim voters could be divided given the presence of BSP and the SP-Congress alliance.
Among the notable names in the fray is that of Pankaj Singh, son of Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh, who is contesting from Noida and Sandeep Singh, grandson of former UP CM Kalyan Singh in Atrauli in Aligarh district. Both are vying for their maiden entry in the UP Assembly. Similarly, Mriganka Singh, daughter of BJP MP Hukum Singh is also contesting her first elections from the Kairana seat on BJP ticket.
The Sardhana seat in Meerut and Thanabhawan seat in Shamli, where Muzaffarnagar riot accused and BJP candidates Sangeet Singh Som and Suresh Rana respectively are trying their luck, will also see a keen contest.
Congress legislature party leader Pradeep Mathur, a three-time MlA from Mathura seat, has been challenged by BJP national spokesperson Srikant Sharma while Rahul Yadav, son- in-law of former Bihar Chief Minister lalu Prasad Yadav, is contesting on SP ticket from Sikandrabad seat in Gautam Buddha Nagar district. Former BJP UP president laxmikant Bajpai is also trying his luck from Meerut (city).
The BSP, which had fielded 100 Muslim candidates in UP polls this time, is eager to ride its elephant symbol on a new Dalit-Muslim combination and connecting it with Sarv Samaj.
The SP-Congress alliance is trying to dent into the Muslim and upper caste vote bank. At least in three Assembly segments --Baldev in Mathura, Kol in Aligarh and Purkazi in Muzaffarnagar --have SP and Congress candidates contesting against each other.
But, the RlD of Ajit Singh could play the spoilsport for BJP and the SP-Congress alliance as it can dent into the Jat as well as the Muslim vote bank to any extent.
Parties like AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi too could impact the fate of the bigger parties and could spoil their run to the UP Assembly. Owaisi campaigned in Muslim-dominated asking people to dump the SP and the BSP.