The midterms could hand Democrats control of the House and put the Senate within reach, reflecting growing anger over living costs and Trump’s policies
When Americans cast their votes for all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships, the man at the centre of it all will not be on the ballot. The midterms are a referendum on Donald Trump’s second term, and Republicans, holding a 53-47 Senate and a razor-thin House majority, enter the final day on the defensive. The likeliest outcome is a Democratic House. All 12 forecasts in a recent political-science round-up predict it; models and markets put the odds at roughly 78 to 93 per cent. The Senate is the real contest: with Vice President JD Vance breaking ties, Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Fox News rates control a toss-up.
Decision Desk HQ last gave Democrats 56 per cent, Kalshi traders about 71. Texas, Iowa and Alaska, Fox’s toss-ups, may decide it. In Texas, a University of Houston poll has Democrat James Talarico on 48 per cent to Republican Ken Paxton’s 46 per cent.
The mood explains the map. Trump’s approval averages roughly 37 per cent against about 60 per cent disapproval; Reuters/Ipsos last measured him at 32 per cent. Democrats lead the generic ballot by around nine points, wider than 2018’s seven. Yet this is no embrace of the opposition. Gallup put congressional approval at 14 per cent in October, and Chuck Schumer has polled worst of the four congressional leaders, underwater even among Democrats. The opposition is winning on anger, not affection. That anger is about money. Seven in ten adults disapprove of Trump’s handling of living costs, and Brookings’ William Galston blames the Iran war and tariffs. AP-NORC finds 80 per cent want lower living costs prioritised by the next Congress, and 68 per cent want an end to the war.
Republicans have a case: the Senate map tilts their way, some voters see price rises as temporary and the war as worth winning, and polls have missed before. Speaker Mike Johnson has questioned the numbers.
For America, a Democratic House means hearings, subpoenas and spending control rather than new laws: gridlock and a sharper fight over executive power.
For the world, the lesson is caution. European diplomats told AFP they doubt the midterms will tame Trump, and a Pentagon review of US forces in Europe is due in December. Jefferies expects the average US tariff to stay at 10-20 per cent even under divided government, since Congress is unlikely to legislate it down.
India should read the result the same way.
The interim trade deal remains stalled despite Marco Rubio’s claim that it is 99 per cent done. A law allowing tariffs of up to 100 per cent on buyers of Russian oil has been paused, reportedly to shield American fuel prices before the vote. H-1B holders, about 70 per cent of whom are Indian, face proposals to scrap their post-layoff grace period. A Democratic Congress can constrain Trump; it will not reverse him. New Delhi’s best hope is a chastened Washington, not a changed one. This Tuesday will show how much patience voters have left with a president they blame for rising prices.