The cases of COVID may be dwindling but is there a next wave in the wings?
India is back to normal following the tapering down of the Omicron wave. Just over 3,000 fresh cases are registered daily. The number of deaths has come down. Over 1.8 billion doses of vaccines have been administered. Children above 12 are receiving vaccines. Twenty million people have received booster doses. The economy is running at full steam. Most restrictions are lifted and international air travel will resume from March 27. Yet, there is a niggling worry. Is COVID-19 no more? Imagine the uproar if another wave were to engulf the country. Scientists are not confirming that we have seen the back of the pandemic. The spoke in the wheel is a WHO statement on Wednesday that COVID-19 infections are rising once again, reversing the decline noticed since January. Over 11 million new infections were reported in the last one week across the world, along with over 43,000 deaths. That is worrisome. The maximum increase is noticed in Europe. The spread of a sub-variant of Omicron and relaxation of safety protocols are the reasons. The new offshoot is being called the “stealth variant” because its genetic mutations are making it difficult for PCR tests to distinguish it from the Delta variant. Scientists in Denmark say this sub-variant is much more transmissible than Omicron. It is responsible for over half of the new cases in Europe. The WHO says those already infected by Omicron have strong protection against re-infection from the sub-variant. Also, thanks to vaccinations and boosters, hospitalisations are less and deaths, lesser.
In Asia, too, cases of fresh infection are on the rise. Spurts are being registered in China, Hong Kong, New Zealand and South Korea. The undeniable fact is the swiftly transmitting sub-variant will somehow reach India. Once the international flight operations resume, it is bound to enter. Some researchers suggest the next wave of the pandemic may begin in India in late June and peak around mid-August. Some scientists are confident that the new sub-variant, like Omicron, may not affect the lungs and so, the number of deaths may be low. But what is the guarantee that the vaccines currently being used in India can protect against serious infection? And what if this periodic sequence of virus mutation leads to seasonal waves? And in advanced countries, most have received three doses, including at least one dose of mRNA vaccine, and they have escaped with minimal infections. That would not be the case with India. On top of it, most of us have given up wearing masks or using sanitisers. If the impact of the new sub-variant is not serious upon hitting India, do we decide that the societal costs of lockdowns and restrictions far outweigh the probable harm the new wave can cause? We should keep in mind that vaccine-induced immunity may have waned in a large number of people six months after the second dose and they need a booster dose to avoid serious infection in the future.