Kerala is reporting quite a high number of COVID cases but the reasons are genuine
For a couple of months now, the focus of pandemic watchers was on Kerala and the State has consistently reported the highest share of nationwide, fresh COVID-19 cases. Even on Tuesday, the State’s numbers went past 23,500, the highest single-day count recorded by any State in the last eight weeks and grabbing a 56 per cent share in the national figure. The current test positivity rate in the State stands at 11.8 per cent. However, when it comes to the more alarming issue of the R-number — it indicates how many persons one COVID-19 patient can infect — Kerala has company. Eight States and Union Territories returned the reproduction — number of 1.2, meaning that one patient is infecting more than one person. Nine other States have an R-number of 1. The greater the ability to infect fresh persons, the greater is the transmissibility of the virus. The number of cases does not give the real picture. The R-number does that job. The more dangerous the variant, like the Delta Plus variant, the faster the transmissibility. Contract tracing will show the speed of transmission. The combination of testing and contact tracing alone can show if the case trajectory is reaching a problematic level in a region in the country. It is high time the Government accords testing and contact tracing as much primacy as vaccination. The jabs, it must be noted, do not necessarily stop new infections but only mellows their intensity.
Unfortunately, except Kerala, no other State or Union Territory is doing extensive testing and neither the national COVID task force nor the Union Health Ministry has insisted on it as yet. It is in this context that the Kerala example should be emulated by the rest of India. The latest sero survey has recorded low seropositivity of 44 per cent for Kerala as against the national average of 68 per cent. That means the majority of the State’s population has remained protected from the virus. Considering that a majority of Kerala’s population is urban, the achievement is all the more impressive. Secondly, the State conducts the most COVID-19 tests daily, the figure hovering around 1.4 lakh. A record 1.96 lakh tests were conducted on July 28. The State Government concentrates the testing in localities with high positivity. As a result, there is a high incidence of positive cases. In the absence of heavy testing, it cannot be said that other States reporting fewer fresh cases are safer. Thirdly, reports suggest the Delta variant entered Kerala later than the rest of India and that could explain the current surge in cases. Kerala has also managed to keep the fatality rate far lower than the national average despite the high number of daily cases. As of Tuesday, 39.9 per cent of the State’s population is vaccinated. The Kerala model will be complete if the R-number is brought down, contract tracing is increased and localised lockdowns are brought back into force.