Results of the latest round of Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana reinforce the fact that there is a dire need to regulate exit and opinion polls to ensure transparency
One of the interesting things that happened during the recent Assembly elections in Maharashtra was the fact that in at least two Assembly constituencies, NOTA (None of The Above) was the runner-up. This phenomenon, while interesting, is ultimately inconsequential when it comes to declaring a winner. Even if NOTA was to get a majority of the vote, the candidate with the second highest votes would still be declared the winner. NOTA does, however, fulfil the role of showcasing disinterest or more typically the lack of options for a voter. Another way in which this can be gauged in an election is the voter turnout. The most recent round of Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana recorded disappointingly low numbers, showcasing once again that there is a need for challenging parties to show their best selves.
However, the fault does not lie with just the political parties. In this week’s article, I will talk about the phenomenon of opinion polls and exit polls. The latter refer to polls that are conducted after voters have cast their ballot and have left the polling stations. An opinion poll, on the other hand, is a survey that is used to predict and/or gauge voter behaviour and involves talking to people, who may or may not cast the ballot, before voting takes place. During the recent Assembly elections, exit polls got the picture completely wrong. Most polls overestimated the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies in the States of Maharashtra and Haryana. The ABP-C voter poll predicted 70 seats for the BJP, while the CNN-IPSOS and Times Now polls went one step further to forecast 75 and 71 seats for the BJP, respectively.
There is a theory that if a monkey is given enough darts, he’ll beat the market. This theory emanates from a research article that simulated results of 100 monkeys throwing darts at the stock pages in a newspaper. It was found that on an average, the monkeys outperformed the index by an average of 1.7 per cent per year since 1964. Applying the same logic to the recent exit polls may seem harsh but the fact that a majority of them got the results wrong does not lend too much credibility to them.
The question, however, is what impact do these opinion and exit polls have on a democracy if they are left unchecked? At the end of the day, any poll is driven by a variety of factors, including the interview set and the timing. Other than these variables, there are also other assumptions that primarily comprise of guesswork and bias (or ideology). The impact of these assumptions and biases is massive. This is because poll numbers — whether in an opinion or exit poll — serve as a kind of democratic currency or a measure of “electability”, as Richard Seymour from The Guardian put it. In India, there are certain sections of the media whose lack of desire, willingness and mettle to question the Government in power has been on sharp display during the last few years. It is unfortunate that these media organisations are also the ones who examine and showcase these opinion and exit polls as a measure of “electability.”
The inevitable consequence of the biases and assumptions that form a part of the poll numbers is that they tend to favour the present Government and reinforce the notion that there is no Opposition in the country. If a person is watching an opinion or exit poll on television and is made to believe that it is almost certain that the BJP will retain power in Maharashtra and in Haryana, there is little, to no incentive, for that person to cast his vote. Therefore, even if a potential voter is largely unhappy with the incumbent Government and is frustrated with issues of unemployment or the lack of power, there is little incentive for him/her to step out of the house if he/she believes that his vote will not really count. Such an outcome has an enormous impact on the working of a healthy democracy.
A look at the results of the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana shows that in as many as 25 seats in the latter and in 37 seats in the former, the victory margin was less than 5,000 votes. Of these seats, interestingly, at least 10 seats in Haryana and nine seats in Maharashtra saw the margin of victory fall below 2,000 votes. Therefore, in a large number of seats, the margin of victory is often excruciatingly slim. It is in such circumstances that one must look at the opinion/exit polls that are showcased during elections. Television news channels spend a large amount of their time displaying these opinion and exit polls, each of which have their own biases and assumptions. Rarely is the Indian populace educated about these assumptions and biases. Instead, we have hours of TV studio experts (this writer included) that examine and justify exit and opinion polls as if they are God’s holy truth and unimpeachable.
The results in the last round of Assembly elections reinforce the notion that this is hardly the case. The impact of such analysis is huge. Just image how the battle in close to 62 seats in Haryana and Maharashtra would have played out if there wasn’t hours of TV news coverage that repeated ad nauseum that the Government in power will stay.
While there are certain restrictions that have been put in place in relation to the exit and opinion polls, they are hardly enough. Under Section 126A of the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951, exit polls are banned from the beginning of the polls until half an hour after the final phase of voting has been held. While this is one step, there are still many more to go. For one, before conducting a full-blown analysis on TV on the verdict these polls throw-up, there must be a clear explanation and breakdown of the methodology of the poll and the assumptions that have been made.
Opinion polls, too, must be regulated or made more accountable. This because some biased opinion polls often claim a no-contest and therefore, nudge voters into staying home rather than suffering in the sun to cast their votes. Due to our first past the post system, even if 5,000 people are affected by these polls, the impact on who ultimately wins is massive.
There were some steps that were taken in this regard. For example, in November 2013, the Election Commission of India (ECI) consulted with political parties to put a restriction on opinion polls as well. All parties except for the BJP endorsed the ECI’s suggestion to ban opinion polls from the date of notifications until the end of polling. Such a step should be welcome as it can lead to a more free and fair election. The BJP must explain why it is not in favour of a step that can help ensure greater transparency and lesser manipulation in an election.
We must remember that some vested entities know all too well just how unscientific some of these polls are and have read how dart throwing monkeys outperform the market. Sometimes, it seems that some of these entities are conducting their own experiments with such polls and think we are the monkeys. Let’s prove them wrong.
(The writer is a former IPS officer, an MP and currently a member of the AAP)