Microdots of codified lockdowns would work well in both confining and choking the virus rather than a national emergency
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call for a self-imposed janta or people’s curfew, rather a self-willed resolve to confine themselves to their houses between 7 am and 9 pm this Sunday, is perhaps a test run for stricter lockdowns in a rapidly changing Coronavirus scenario. Calling out to people to discipline themselves in a war-like situation and not get into panic mode, the PM’s national address was not just reassuring but preparatory to the way India would evolve its own battle against the virus threat. He geared us up for it. And at a time when global corporations are arresting slipping bottomlines with salary and job cuts, the PM’s call to set up an economic task force to alleviate woes was a much-needed balm against anxieties of our throbbing workforce. While the speech may have sounded altruistic, the fact is the Modi Government has a response plan in place and is priming and scaling us up to it should the need arise. For the outbreak in India is likely to mutate into an India-specific variant, one which frankly we have to combat given our resources and contexts. Ever since COVID-19 cases have started going up in India, there is a possibility of a real explosion of the infection given our porosity at many levels. The low ratio of testing means low data that is still not representative enough until we have more testing kits and centres that are broad-based. There are potential hotspots where a focussed vigilance, containment and lockdown protocol is needed. Our population density and cheek-by-jowl neighbourhoods mean cluster spores could multiply almost overnight and there is a real possibility of the infection just lying beneath the surface and eating into communities. Then there is the very Indian tendency to hide the truth of affliction to escape quarantine and stigma, like 100 suspected carriers fleeing a facility in Ludhiana. Although the Government says we have not entered Stage III, the fact is we have tested the lowest samples globally, about 6,000 to 7,000. Compare this with South Korea, which has a lesser population than Tamil Nadu but has tested 250,000. Now the Government has rationalised its existing testing infrastructure to broaden the ambit of samples to all kinds of pneumonic diseases. Some experts say that we may be dealing with a hydra-headed monster and there may come a time when sourcing its kill point would become a massive challenge. They maintain that some over-reaction is good in terms of ensuring preventing protocols and that along with improved testing infrastructure, which would still take about a week to operationalise, we should consider territorial and localised lockdowns. Which means that barring essential services of food, rations and hospitals and limited mobility permits for emergencies, citizens are to be house-bound. Various models have worked in their given contexts and we need to develop one that works for us. For example, there is the aggressive Wuhan model of forced isolation, there is London’s self-imposed exile, Taiwan and Singapore’s method of aggressive testing, contact tracing and social distancing. While India has several templates to adapt from, it has to adopt a reasonable and executable plan. But it has to be by order to impress upon the citizenry the seriousness of compliance and the importance of a drill. Which is why the PM’s call against hoarding of essentials and desisting from crowding hospitals unnecessarily made sense. We have shut all international flights for a week. Already worst-hit local administrations have been proactive to self-censor and contain the spread. Apart from the usual closure of public spaces, malls and institutions and social distancing protocols by mostly urban communities, each city is evolving a response plan particular to its context. Noida, one of the techie hotspots, is under Section 144 till March 31. Pune is initiating a rotational protocol of varied office times to avoid congestion and limiting office numbers to host not more than five employees at a time. Mumbai has already rolled out a graded traffic plan, closing some roads on alternate days to control crowds.
Perhaps, these microdots of lockdowns would work well in both confining and choking the virus rather than a national lockdown. The latter is a double-edged sword for a nation where there is a lot of indiscipline and fear about acceptance of the reality of the disease as a tameable crisis rather than a Doomsday nightmare. It could lead to a panic economy. Yet without a national directive, there’s no sense of crisis but a misplaced bravado. The PM’s national address was, therefore, much-needed. A virus-hit economy is already flying off the rails, the worst-hit being the unorganised sector and daily wage earners, who may have to disproportionately bear losses. The cascading impact is beyond guessable. India is caught between the devil and the deep sea — a virus on one side and extreme poverty on the other.