The Opposition can’t fight the BJP with a front of regional forces, a national alternative is must
Should Sharad Pawar of the NCP be the chairman of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)? It was a loaded question. It was addressed to West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee. The impetuous leader’s answer was dismissive. “Kya UPA hai? Abhi UPA nahi hai.” (What UPA? There is no UPA) That was interpreted to mean that she was questioning the relevance of the UPA and, by extension, of the Congress. The interpretation took on a life of its own, with speculations rife that Mamata was batting for non-Congress Opposition unity to take on the BJP in 2024. Could it be that Mamata was dismissive of Pawar’s ability to be UPA chief? Nothing is known about what Mamata and Pawar talked about in Mumbai other than the latter reiterating the need for like-minded parties to come together against the BJP. Interestingly, it was a meeting of two formidable, former Congress leaders conversing about 2024. Mamata left Congress in 1997 and Pawar followed two years later.
A lot is happening in the extended Congress world if one includes Mamata and Pawar and the so-called dissident G-23 leaders. It kindles memories of yore when there was an umbrella Janata Party which eventually split so many times that when Opposition leaders meet somewhere, it is more of a reunion of the erstwhile Janata Party alumni. Today, the stakes are becoming higher in the Congress. The relevance of the party, rather than the UPA, is in question. There is a discernible movement within the party to challenge the first family. If the Congress does not do well in the coming Assembly elections, at least in Punjab and Uttarakhand, another round of dissent is expected. Despite her overt reaction about the UPA, Mamata knows the basic structure of national politics: The Opposition has to come up with a national alternative to the BJP by 2024. It cannot fight the BJP with a front of regional forces. These forces need to have a national umbrella with a face attached to it. There is some wishful speculation that if current UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi is thinking of retiring, would she prefer a regional leader with a national presence to succeed her, leaving Rahul Gandhi free to steer Congress as party president. Such speculation implies the inability of Congress to secure over 100 seats on its own in 2024. As of date, the Opposition has its fingers crossed because they are waiting for the Congress to complete its organisational elections. That will end the suspense about the next Congress president and whether the president will also be the UPA chairperson. Meanwhile, there is an argument begging for resolution: If the regional forces say Congress is no match for the BJP and should, therefore, play second fiddle to them, the Congress can turn around to say the anti-BJP regional forces are present around the Hindi heartland but not in it. How the Samajwadi Party fares in the UP elections will determine the shape of this argument.