Till the Election Commission decides who deserves the symbol, the Shinde camp remains a faction; the Uddhav camp is nothing more than a diminishing ‘fraction’
Though the mainstream media equates both the Shiv Sena groups with the same bulk of command over the splintered party, the fact remains otherwise. It is now clear that the bigger chunk has already been taken away by Eknath Shinde, and what is left over for Uddhav is a tiny and still-diminishing fraction.
Though the ‘faction’ has already formed the Government and passed the floor test, a deeper political crunch is still undergoing within the larger Shiv Sena Parivaar. The bone of contention and the fight for survival for both groups now concentrate on the most important question: Who will finally own the party and its symbol? This will continue till the EC takes the final call, deciding on who qualifies to be the owner of the Shiv Sena and its symbol.
Now, the saviours of either camp must be hectic in exploring all thinkable routes to conquer that technical-legal existential battle at EC by all means possible. In particular, the political legitimacy and the future course for both camps will be on tenterhooks till the EC spells the final word.
Principles for the EC: The opinion of experts shows the success of either group depends on the single available option to them — how they can successfully establish their majority before the EC. When the needle of the entire game sags to the evidence of majority, it is pretty evident that either faction must be trying hard to drag it into their favour.
The focused dynamics: The dynamics of proving the majority constitute the following parameters, and the precedents indicate that the EC will certainly examine into it. So, the EC will examine the support each faction enjoys within the party’s organisation, in the legislature wing, in the top committees and decision-making bodies.
Most importantly, before deciding on these factors, the EC will certainly have to learn the Shiv Sena constitution for once. As this particular case goes, the most tangible parameter that the EC will take into account is the number of lawmakers and legislators in each camp. And, in this case, the legislative wings necessarily consist of MPs, MLAs and maybe the count of MLCs if the EC wants to consider. Secondly, the EC will examine the strength of support that each faction enjoys within the party’s organisational setups. Here, the EC may go a little further and ask both camps to produce the necessary evidence with documentary support.
The EC’s discretion: Now, the ball is in the EC’s court. When it is about a political party, the EC will certainly listen to all stakeholders, then whoever wants to be heard, and it will consider the pre- and the post- factual circumstances that led to the splintering. Here, the EC’s power will be certainly at play. The Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968, gives it power to deal with the very issue. However, the EC’s discretion will finally prevail and remain binding.
As far as the EC’s discretion goes, it doesn’t lack any restriction to decide in favour of one of the factions or neither of these. However, in this case, it can probably rule in favour of one of the factions based on the real majority of support it enjoys both in the organisation and in the legislative wings. Then, it can keep the party symbol reserved for that faction in majority and may ask the other faction to register itself as a new political party with a different symbol.
Who is at advantage? As a recent precedent, a lesson can be drawn from the Samajwadi Party case where the father-son duo reached the EC to claim the party’s symbol. Akhilesh won against Mulayam Yadav, evidencing that he not only commanded the Government but also the party.
In this particular case, the E-faction may also be considering to take over the party even before the EC steps in. E-faction has validated its majority in the legislative wings by establishing a fresh Government in Maharashtra, followed by winning the floor test in the Assembly. Now, it is for the E-faction then to confirm its majority in party organisation, particularly by bringing the Sena office bearers into its fold.
The final batting of the U-fraction: If certain people break from the party, the anti-defection law comes into play. Under the law, whether it is one person or 100, the anti-defection law comes into application. Defection equates to the intended partition from the party and its membership; and at this very point, the U-fraction will surely stick to it. Nevertheless, on the disqualification issue, the only option is to knock at the Speaker’s office. But then, it is rather unlikely that the Speaker would entertain such a petition.
New surprises: The total strength of Maharashtra Assembly is 287 and the majority mark is 144. The E-faction-led Government in coalition with BJP has won the floor test with 164.
Many independent MLAs are still roaming around the negotiation camps as dark horses. With Congress as well as NCP as the focal political contenders, the ruling faction on the edge may unfurl added surprises by breaking into their camp also.
(The author is Assistant Professor of Political Science in Mody University, Rajasthan. The views expressed are personal.)