Russia seems headed for a conflict with the West, and retribution is likely
As the European countries have stepped up efforts to avoid what now looks like an inevitable war, Russia is heading for an open confrontation with the West. With tension running high over Russia’s military build-up near Ukraine, and Russian separatists stepping up offensive, peace stands on a razor’s edge on that border. The ceasefire monitors have already reported that ceasefire violations are rampant. Britain’s Minister for Europe said the Russian invasion of Ukraine is “very, very imminent”, in a way summing up the western assessment. The western nations have urged their citizens to leave Ukraine, yet another indication that the West is giving up hope of any peaceful solution. A security conference in Germany had top US and European officials, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US Vice-President Kamala Harris deliberating on the possibilities. Meanwhile, last-ditch diplomatic efforts were underway on Sunday to prevent what western powers warn could be the imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine which could escalate into a full-fledged European war. With hundreds of artillery shells exploding along the contact line between Ukrainian soldiers and the Russia-backed separatists, and thousands of people evacuated in eastern Ukraine, the stage is all but set for a Russian invasion.
Should that happen, it would be yet another catastrophe on the global scale. The world has not even fully recovered from the damage that the pandemic has inflicted on humanity; the Russian invasion would mean another bigger, perhaps even more deadly, challenge to humanity. The chances are the West would not let it pass and would resort to retaliatory measures as hinted by Joe Biden and his administration. Unfortunately, world bodies like the United Nations and others are ill-equipped to resolve such conflicts even after 75-odd years of its existence. Equally unfortunate is that democracy has not taken roots across the world and large portions of humanity are still governed by despots, tyrants and overbearing leaders like Putin. Meanwhile, India is under pressure to take a clear stand which is difficult for it as Russia-India relations are historic. But an ambiguous stand puts it at odds with the US, Europe and others. It was okay for India to not join others in publicly condemning the Russian military build-up which has been appreciated by Russia but, at the same time, India can appeal to Russia for peacefully resolving the issue and avoiding confrontation.