Myanmar today is less a unified nation than a fractured battlefield of clashing powers. The military junta, once thought unassailable, is steadily losing ground to a determined resistance and powerful ethnic armies
Myanmar today is not a single, unified entity but a complex mosaic of competing forces. The military junta, or the State Administration Council (SAC), is losing its grip on the country, ceding territory and influence to a determined resistance movement composed of People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and powerful ethnic armed organisations (EAOs). For India, particularly its northeastern states, this unfolding crisis is not just international news; it is a matter of vital concern, impacting security, trade, and regional stability.
The Humanitarian Crisis
Since the February 2021 coup, Myanmar has been in a state of escalating civil war. The military, known as the Tatmadaw, has faced unprecedented resistance, suffering its worst losses in history. Its forces have been routed from numerous towns and military outposts, particularly in the northern and western parts of the country. A key turning point was Operation 1027, a sweeping offensive launched in late 2023 by the Brotherhood Alliance that demonstrated the military’s vulnerability and inspired resistance forces nationwide. The junta has since resorted to brutal tactics, including indiscriminate airstrikes and forced conscription. The humanitarian situation is dire. As of late 2025, over 3.5 million people are internally displaced, and a staggering 19.9 million are in need of humanitarian assistance. Public services have collapsed, and the economy is in a state of freefall, with widespread poverty and food insecurity.
Arakan Army: Strategic Implications
For India and Bangladesh, the most consequential development is the rapid rise of the Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine State. The AA has seized control of a majority of the townships in the state, including the entire 271-kilometer border with Bangladesh. They are now a de facto governing body in much of the region, administering justice and controlling trade. The AA’s ultimate goal, rooted in their ethno-nationalist ideology, is to restore the sovereignty of the ancient Kingdom of Arakan, which they believe was a distinct entity from the rest of Burma. This presents a profound geopolitical puzzle. The AA’s territorial gains put them in control of critical infrastructure projects that are central to the strategic interests of both India and China. India’s Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project: This project, a cornerstone of India’s “Act East Policy,” is designed to provide a sea-river-road route from Kolkata to the northeastern states via the Sittwe Port in Rakhine. With the AA now controlling this region, the project’s success is entirely contingent on their cooperation.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Similarly, the deep-sea port and oil and gas pipelines in Kyaukphyu are central to China’s BRI. While Beijing has reportedly intensified its backing of the junta, it also appears to be preparing for a scenario where the AA controls the facility, given the group’s stated commitment to protecting foreign investments.
The Chittagong-Rohingya connection further complicates the situation. The AA’s territorial ambitions have raised concerns in Dhaka, while its shifting stance on the Rohingya — caught between a history of ethnic tensions and recent exploitation by the junta — adds a delicate layer to the crisis for both Bangladesh and the international community.
The IMT Trilateral Highway
Crucially, the conflict has directly impacted the India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT) Trilateral Highway, a project of immense strategic and economic importance to India. This 1,360 km road network, connecting Moreh in India to Mae Sot in Thailand, is envisioned as the physical embodiment of India’s “Act East Policy.”
For Northeast India, the highway carries transformative potential: It would transform the landlocked region into a gateway for trade with Southeast Asia, significantly reducing logistics costs and creating a new economic corridor. It is a key enabler for India to strengthen its economic and diplomatic presence in the ASEAN region and a crucial counter to China’s growing influence. However, despite its immense promise, the project is decades behind schedule. While the sections in India and Thailand are largely complete, the crucial stretches in Myanmar are stalled, with a new deadline now set for 2027.
Security Challenges
The highway passes through active conflict zones, creating an extremely dangerous environment for construction workers. Key sections, such as the 120 km Kalewa-Yagyi road and the Tamu-Kyigone-Kalewa bridge projects, have faced repeated delays due to the violence.
Political Instability
The lack of a stable central government has complicated the signing of a Motor Vehicle Agreement (MVA), which is essential for the seamless flow of goods and people. The absence of a reliable partner in Naypyitaw has forced New Delhi to re-evaluate its approach. The highway’s fate will depend on New Delhi’s ability to navigate the complex and dangerous landscape of a civil war in its own backyard. Recent high-level visits by Indian officials to Myanmar highlight a continued commitment to the project despite the immense challenges.
India’s Delicate Balancing Act
The influx of Chin and Kuki refugees from Myanmar into Mizoram and Manipur has strained resources and caused community tension. While the Mizos share a strong ethnic affinity with the Chin, the issue of illegal immigration has become a flashpoint in Manipur’s ongoing ethnic conflict. The era of dealing exclusively with the central government in Naypyitaw is over. India’s traditional “neighbourhood first” policy is being tested by a new reality where non-state actors like the Arakan Army wield significant power in key border regions.
The situation demands a nuanced and flexible approach from New Delhi, one that recognises the de facto authority of groups controlling the ground while maintaining diplomatic channels with all stakeholders. The super highway dream, the Rohingya crisis, and the fight for autonomy in Myanmar are all part of a single, complex tapestry that demands a strategic and forward-looking response from India. The outcome of this war will directly impact the economic future and security of India’s Northeast, making the conflict in Myanmar a defining geopolitical challenge for New Delhi.
The author is the former DGP (HoPF) of Assam and the General Secretary of the Think Tank called Society to Harmonise Aspirations for Responsible Engagement—SHARE