The BJP may iron out differences with the Sena but the question is will it be ready for a perennial rocky ride?
In the end, the BJP-Shiv Sena combination has the numbers, the propriety bestowed by a verdict and long-term political survival at stake to let the cookie crumble. All that has been going on in between is about posturing and extracting respective pounds of flesh from a fortune built on Hindutva’s most rewarding phase so far. Truth is both cannot do without each other in Maharashtra. In a State that is fiercely loyal to Maratha pride and manoos, one cannot write off either the Shiv Sena, which has an ideological hold on the masses, or Sharad Pawar, who has been a true Maratha warrior in this round of State elections. And if the Sena is seen as a pesky ally of the BJP, it’s only because it has lost its “big brother” status in the alliance. But at least for its constituency, it has to keep fighting this takeover of numbers with its championship of rights and issues. The BJP accommodated the Sena only because of this groundswell, though some of its leaders had been insisting that the party go it alone. From the Sena’s point of view, this is the best time to go on the offensive and fulfill its founder Bal Thackeray’s dream of having a Sainik as Chief Minister. But the Thackerays never fought an election, choosing to be mightier as puppeteers than players. That outlier status worked given the heaving persona of Balasaheb Thackeray but his descendants fell far short of it without electoral credibility. Which is why they fielded his grandson Aditya after they held the BJP to its word that it wouldn’t do a repeat of 2014 when the two parties contested the Lok Sabha polls together but fell apart during the Assembly polls months later. The BJP kept its promise and even agreed to give 124 seats to the Sena though it had won only 63 seats in 2014. Now, the Sena claims, there was also a pre-poll agreement on a rotational chief ministership. The Sena has won lesser seats, 56, this time but has scented blood with the BJP tally down from 122 to 105. It desperately wants to claim the notional status of being “big brother” and dominate the alliance government and hence the State. Even if both parties get Independents in their shopping carts, the numbers wouldn’t be enough.
Of course the BJP could opt for a minority government, as it had done with Chief Minister-elect Devendra Fadnavis before, but would find itself horribly exposed from within and without — the Sena chomping away at its authority if not included, the Opposition Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) combine now a force with 98 seats. It is because of this predicament of the BJP that the Sena, now with an elected family member, is settling for nothing less than a written commitment for 50:50 chief ministership. And though the wily Pawar has decided to sit in the Opposition rather than toy with the arithmetic of the Congress-NCP-Sena understanding, he has lent moral heft to Aditya Thackeray’s right to chief ministership. This underlines an endorsement of Maratha leadership. At this point, the BJP cannot afford a hitback of the Jat kind in Haryana. And whether Aditya becomes a deputy CM or a half-CM, the fact is Sena has never been better placed to recover lost ground. But Uddhav’s waiting game, which has done nothing so far, may not hold with Sainiks now that they have come so close to power. This internecine push and pull dynamic is something that the BJP has to live with. This could turn problematic in day-to-day governance with the Sena posing hurdles to each and every policy decision or amending it to suit its concerns. Already Sena cadres have felled the BJP by campaigning against it in places where they didn’t get tickets. Of course, the BJP could circumvent the obstructionist ways by reaching out to Pawar, who had supported it in 2014. But this is a changed man who is not forlorn anymore. And as he thundered in Marathi through blinding rain in Satara, it was enough to defeat the BJP who had thought poaching his man Udhayanraje Bhosle was as good as getting the old warhorse. Symbolically and numerically, he has the winning card now, one that he will use for his own benefit. Unless the ED cases against his kin bother him too much. Besides, with 20 of its rebel candidates winning in the State, the BJP is in quite a pickle. It still has the edge though but the course ahead is on a rocky mountain high.