After months of diplomatic distance, Nepal PM Balendra Shah’s likely visit to India offers an opportunity to rebuild trust and reset ties. New Delhi must balance its strategic concerns with Kathmandu’s growing assertion of sovereignty and its expanding engagement with China
India’s long wait to host new Nepalese Prime Minister Balendra ‘Balen’ Shah is expected to end soon, with a visit likely in the third week of November. The young leader, who assumed office in March this year, has kept India waiting for this critical visit since being sworn in.
Indian foreign secretary Vikram Misri is slated to travel to Kathmandu in early November to finalise the agenda. New Delhi will likely be relieved that Shah has chosen India, rather than China, for his first official bilateral visit. China, which has already made deep inroads into Nepal, continues to assiduously court the Nepalese leadership across political parties to further expand its influence.
For India, Nepal remains a vital strategic buffer between itself and China. Consequently, China’s expanding footprint in Kathmandu has raised significant concern in New Delhi, prompting it to redouble its diplomatic and economic efforts to remain closely engaged with Nepal.
Sharing a long and porous border with Nepal, India has huge security stakes in the landlocked Himalayan country. During Shah’s visit, New Delhi must seek firm assurances from Kathmandu that its core strategic interests will not be compromised.
The upcoming summit between the two PMs is expected to inject fresh momentum into bilateral relations, which faced significant headwinds under Shah’s China-leaning predecessor K P Sharma Oli. India will also be seeking to get better acquainted with the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) leader and his government’s expectations from New Delhi.
Traditionally, bound by deep historical and civilizational ties, newly-elected Nepalese PMs make New Delhi their first foreign destination soon after taking charge. Shah, who is a rapper-turned-politician, however, has kept India on tenterhooks.
Early in his tenure, Shah had indicated he would bypass immediate foreign travel to focus squarely on domestic reforms. Adopting an unorthodox diplomatic stance, he even declined a one-on-one meeting with the Indian ambassador shortly after taking over, opting to meet him only as part of a collective group of envoys. He later even refused to meet the Indian foreign secretary during a planned visit by him to Kathmandu, prompting a miffed New Delhi to call off the trip.
Shah’s indifference to diplomatic necessities was further reflected in the failure to appoint an ambassador to India even six months after the recall of the previous envoy. While it is said to have finally zeroed in on Nischal Nath Pandey as Nepal’s next ambassador to India, there seems to be little concern about the potential impact of such delays on Nepal’s strategic interests. India, on the other hand, was swift to announce the appointment of senior Indian diplomat Sudhakar Dalela as India’s new envoy to Nepal.
Shah’s decision to finally visit India is a positive signal that he recognises the importance of his country’s ties with it and its pre-eminence in the region. His visit would also be driven by the practical realisation that robust ties with India are a developmental and economic necessity for his nation. Preparing the groundwork for the visit, Nepal’s finance minister Swarnim Wagle and home minister Sudhan Gurung have visited India in recent weeks. Wagle is said to have given the necessary push for Shah’s visit, though he did set the cat among the pigeons in his own country with some of his recent remarks at an event in New Delhi.
Wagle declared that “there was a time when nationalism in Nepal was associated with anti-India sentiment. But that era is now over”. However, this assessment may be overly optimistic. Anti-India sentiment remains a reality among many Nepalese, who take fierce pride in their sovereignty - a feeling exacerbated after the 2015 unofficial blockade imposed by India.
Despite these underlying tensions, the two neighbours need each other for mutual benefit. India is expected to announce substantial grants and concessional loans for its neighbour. An announcement of a substantial credit line to help Nepal with reconstruction work following the devastating Bhutkoshi River disaster is also expected. For Nepal, the existing trade imbalance is something it will want addressed. Hydropower remains a cornerstone of bilateral cooperation, and both sides must impart some renewed vigour into resolving their long-standing differences over the delayed Pancheshwar multipurpose project in Nepal.
For India, this outreach to the Shah government will affirm its commitment to remaining Nepal’s trusted development partner, one who extends financial assistance with no strings attached, unlike China. The fact that Nepal has joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative is a cause for deep worry for India. Amid the ongoing efforts to reinvigorate bilateral ties, the Kalapani-Lipulekh territory dispute has the potential to be a roadblock. As PM, Oli used it to whip up nationalist sentiments in Nepal for his political gain. India’s inauguration of the road leading to Kailash Mansarovar via Lipulekh in 2020 left Nepal fuming. The Oli government then changed the country’s map to show these disputed territories as part of Nepal. Tensions flared up again this year when India and China resumed the Kaliash Mansarovar yatra via the Lipulekh Pass, prompting the Shah government to lodge formal protests with both New Delhi and Beijing.
This territorial dispute remains an irritant in bilateral ties. India must realise that Nepal, like other countries in the neighbourhood, is increasingly assertive about its sovereignty and is no longer willing to play second fiddle to its larger neighbour. India’s quiet burial of the Eminent Persons Group report, which, among other things, suggested the revision of the 1950 Indo-Nepal Friendship Treaty, has caused significant resentment in Kathmandu. Such unilateral actions ultimately undermine Indian interests, reinforcing the perception of a heavy-handed regional power. India must engage Nepal as an equal partner, not as a subordinate neighbour, to secure its strategic interests.
The upcoming summit between the two PMs is expected to inject fresh momentum into bilateral relations, which faced significant headwinds under Shah’s China-leaning predecessor K P Sharma Oli
The writer is a policy analyst who writes on strategic affairs; Views presented are personal.