The US has abandoned Afghanistan but where does it go from here, under the Taliban?
As the last American soldier boarded the final flight from Kabul on May 31, two things happened that are of significance to South Asian affairs. One, India made public for the first time its formal communication with the Taliban, days after the latter’s overtures. Two, al-Qaeda, alleged to have links with the Taliban and sheltered in Afghanistan, congratulated the latter on the exit of the United States and called for the “liberation” of Kashmir along with other so-called Islamic lands. If India is the unquestioned leader of the anti-terrorism forces in the Asian sub-continent, Afghanistan and the Taliban have a lot of explaining to do about their commitment to eject terrorism from their land. A return to democracy, civil governance and peace is a priority for Afghanistan but the elimination of terror is the priority for South Asia in particular. India needs a two-pronged approach to the Afghanistan affair. On the one hand, India is willing to help in the country’s progress economically and in reviving democratic values as also protect its investment of billions of dollars in developing infrastructure. On the other, India has to tackle the issue of terrorism both in Afghanistan as well as South Asia. India is still finalising its Afghan policy; the Doha meeting with the Taliban is part of it. The coming days will see its gradual unfolding, culminating in the Prime Minister’s address to the UN General Assembly this month. Where terrorism is concerned, India has already initiated action in the UN Security Council by adopting a resolution asking the Taliban that Afghan territory “not be used to threaten or attack any country or shelter or train terrorists”.
A similar demand is listed in the Doha Agreement signed by the Taliban and the US but, in this case, the reference is not only to al-Qaeda but other terror groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad which allegedly have Pakistani patronage. Hundreds of fighters of these groups are reportedly in Afghanistan and fought along with the Taliban. The onus is on the Taliban to satisfy India that such terror groups will not be encouraged. The resolution obliquely underlines the possibility of Pakistan, weighed down by constant pressure from the Financial Action Task Force, shifting terror elements out of its territory to Afghanistan. Pakistan also has the responsibility to host the next meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and would not want to be embarrassed if India and other countries raise the issue of terrorism when deciding on inviting Afghanistan under the Taliban. India at some point should also seek clarification on the status of the Haqqani group in the Taliban’s scheme of things. In November 2012, it was India that was instrumental in getting the group designated as a terror organisation. How Afghanistan under the Taliban and Pakistan tackle the terror question will determine India’s stand when the time comes for it to chair the Counter-Terrorism Committee in 2022.