For Ankara, the purported attack in northern Syria is to create a safe zone along the border to resettle the Syrian refugees. But Erdogan’s real intention, it seems, is to flush out all the rebels. Erdogan is treading warily with the refugee issue by camouflaging it with the threat coming from the Kurdish militants. More insidiously, he is demonising the electorate who have refused to support his party AKP
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has once again intervened in northern Syria, making a desperate bid to bolster his political prospects in 2023 by impressing upon many of his countrymen who are unhappy with Syrian refugees staying in his country.
For Ankara, the purported incursion in northern Syria is to create a safe zone along the border to resettle the Syrian refugees. But Erdogan’s real intention, it seems, is to flush out all the rebels belonging to Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) which Turkey considers as a terrorist organisation affiliated with the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). It’s a long-drawn battle wherein the vital interests of major world powers, like the US and Russia, is directly targeted by Erdogan.
The Syrian predicament has lingered for over 11 years. The conflict has uprooted nearly 13 million people, more than half of the pre-war population of that country. Further the historic crisis has left an estimated 14 million people in the lurch.
Syria, a West Asian country situated on the Eastern Mediterranean and the Levant, is in the midst of a serious humanitarian crisis and economic chaos. In French language, the word “Levant” means ‘rising’, but it is almost a dying nation ruled by its embattled President Bashar al-Assad, largely supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his forces since the upsurge that began in 2011.
However, the battle in Syria has triggered an enormous refugee crisis in West Asia. Of the displaced Syrians, 6.6 million are staying as refugees in neighbouring countries: 3.8 million in Turkey, 8,40,000 in Lebanon, 6,75,000 in Jordan, and over 2,50,000 in Iraq. In fact, there is more than 20 per cent increase in the movement of refugees from Syrian land between 2021 and 2022.
Now the moot point is why Erdogan is attacking northern Syria. Today, the US, Russia and Syria are apprehensive that Ankara might launch a full-scale attack on its border with Syria. In November, Turkey’s Defence Minister Hulusi Akar told his military commanders on the Iraqi borderlands that the Government is ready to “complete the tasks”. It simply indicated that the Erdogan Government is all set to start a hard battle against the YPG forces operating from Syria. It is certain that for this, Turkey has to move on the ground so as to diminish the might of the YPG.
Behind this, Erdogan and his team are working tirelessly to address the growing anti-immigration sentiment among the Turks. Today, refugees flowing from all war-ravaged nations, including Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, etc, are facing animosity from the locals. The refugees in Yusufpasa of Istanbul are worried about their future. Remarkably, this particular district or town has been attracting millions of refugees for years. In fact, though these migrants are coming from various conflict-ridden nations, the Syrians are most visibly shaping the life and times of the rest. That’s why xenophobic attacks are on the rise. The Turkish capital has already become the hotspot of refugee bashing. Many Syrians are worried that Ankara type incidents might repeat in other refugee camps abroad.
Beyond the politicking of Erdogan, the elites in Turkey need to understand the reality of geopolitical calculations and accordingly set the tone for dealing with refugees in that country. The need of the hour is to change the rhetoric and devise large integration policies that may help foster social harmony and protect the new refugees entering into the country, especially from neighbouring Syria.
But why are the Turkish people threatened by the influx of Syrian refugees? The primary reason is that these outsiders are fast changing the ethnic mosaic of the country. These new residents have turned Turkey from a relatively homogenous nation composed mainly of the ethnic Turks and minority Kurdish into a more diverse country. This trend of migration has made Turkey a place of millions of Arab and Afghan people. The demographic change has a serious impact on the lives of the locals. As a matter of fact, the indigenous Turks are not used to accommodate outsiders. But the new change heralded by international migration has virtually shaken the national identity of the Turks long defined by a strong sense of ethnic nationalism.
Erdogan is trying to make a fresh bid for another term in the presidential election in June 2023. He has already become the longest serving leader of Turkey combining both his prime ministerial and presidential terms. He was Prime Minister of the country from 2003-2014 and has been functioning as President since 2014.
Before becoming Prime Minister, he was the Mayor of Istanbul from 1994-1998. He has already surpassed the uninterrupted rule of great Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, modern Turkey’s founder and first President of the country from October 29, 1923, until his death on November 10, 1938.
Erdogan is posing as a Turkish Muslim messiah in the eyes of his supporters. He is making his own brand and competing against himself only, and hardly has left any of his opponents active in politics, particularly after the coup in the country on July 15, 2016. Since then, Erdogan has virtually eliminated all his political rivals. Many consider him as the force resurrecting the Muslim Umma, the global Muslim community. For long he has branded the opposition as blasphemous. And anyone who is against him is publicly treated and targeted as anti-Turkish, and anti-Muslim. Finally, such people are declared as enemies of the Turkish State by Erdogan and his cronies all around the world.
While looking at Erdogan’s plan to stamp out the Kurdish militias in northern Syria, it is pertinent to see what he is planning to achieve. Erdogan is treading warily with the refugee issue by camouflaging it with the threat coming from the Kurdish militants. More insidiously, he is demonising the electorate who have refused to support his AKP. And in this plan, he includes all the leftists, liberals, seculars, social democrats and finally the Kurdish.
No wonder, Erdogan may win his next presidential bid. It is easier for him as there are hardly any strong opposition forces. It would be quite possible as since 2003, he has been making strategies to gather the conservative support base and raising popularity among the political Islamists. And fortunately, he has come at a time when the entire West Asia, particularly his neighbouring nations are all bedevilled by uncertainty, growing radical Islamic movements and a fast-changing global political calculation wherein stability is key concern for nations. Erdogan’s opportunism and anti-democratic agenda is largely supported by growing uncertainties in the global governance system as well.
Finally, Erdogan seems to have forgotten that politics is the “art of the possible” as rightly echoed by German statesman Otto von Bismarck. The forces propelled by Erdogan might topple him one fine day and make democracy thrive in this country. He is omnipotent for now, no doubt. But his executive style presidency and the illiberal democracy that he has been championing for almost two decades now might give way to a true democratic order in Turkey.
It is high time he won a popular referendum as his AKP has failed to win more than 50 per cent of the popular support. His attempt to punish the alleged Gulenist plotters and proxies has morphed into a witch hunt that continues even today. And this political vendetta has been extended to include anyone whoever has defied Erdogan, including the Leftists, liberals, and Kurdish nationalists. He must be careful while pursuing his desire to remain the permanent president of Turkey simply by organising a periodic democratic festival called election simply to legitimise his stay in power.
(The writer is the Head of the Department of Arts and Humanities at Geeta University, Panipat)