With US-backed Kurdish forces claiming IS territory, its reign may come to an end. But the outfit is still dangerous
As the Kurdish forces of the Syrian Democratic Front (SDF) moved into Baghuz, the last stronghold of the Islamic State (IS), a small town located on a bend of the Euphrates river, reports emerged that sounded eerily similar to events that occurred in Berlin towards the end of the Second World War. Thousands of refugees, mainly women and children, many of the kids fathered by IS fighters, left the city. This created a huge problem for several Western Governments as many refugees were citizens who now wanted to return. The case of Shamima Begum, a British citizen and her new-born baby, made headlines when the UK rescinded her citizenship and during the vocal debate on whether to take her child back or not, the new-born baby unfortunately died in the heat, dust and unhygienic conditions of a refugee camp. That is another debate and one that Governments in the West will have to ponder about, as will India, where tens of brain-washed youth have traversed all the way to the Levant to rape, pillage and kill ‘infidels’. The big question is whether this signifies the end of IS. The loss of Baghuz means it has lost the last shred of real estate that it owned. But just because IS does not have any territory or a population under its control, and most importantly money, the kind it made from trading crude oil as well as through kidnapping and even the slave trade using Yazidi women, does not mean that it is over. The IS ideology survives as do many of the group’s leaders such as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, sheltered by friendly tribespersons in Iraq and Syria. Post regime-change Iraq is still a den of corruption and long-standing tribal and religious schisms papered over in the Saddam-era continue to fester. And while Bashir al-Assad’s forces have with Russian help ousted many of the forces inimical to the regime in Damascus, much of Syria is still a mess. With US President Donald Trump unwilling to keep more boots on the ground, things could still go haywire.
More importantly, much of what IS achieved was with the internet and using modern communications and media tools to disseminate its information. This led to promoting ‘lone wolf’ attacks such as those made with trucks in Berlin and Marseilles. This is unlikely to end, even though social networks have cracked down on such pages. Pro-IS propaganda still exists online and recorded audio messages by leaders like al-Baghdadi are available on the internet, imploring supporters to stay active. Without money and material, IS might have been defanged for now but the poison glands are still producing venom. To ensure that the fangs don’t re-emerge, Governments must remain vigilant.