The Ukraine-Russia conflict is snowballing into a serious crisis which could have far-reaching ramifications for world peace and economy
Trouble was brewing in the Balkans, and yet on Europe's eastern front was gearing up for war. The partial mobilisation was ordered. The Russian army and reservists were called up, trains began to load soldiers and supplies for imminent war. Diplomatic cables out of St Petersburg claimed that "partial mobilisation" was only wordplay, as the Russian military was deploying on the German and Austro-Hungarian fronts as per the "general mobilisation plan".
With little time left, the Germans ordered the counter-mobilisation and declared war. What could have been a war between two belligerents Serbia and Austro-Hungarians and a regional local affair escalated into World War I? Serbia took a back seat and the other Great powers - Britain, France, the US, and the minor powers Italy and Ottomans began the bloodiest power play, the world had ever seen. Habsburgs and Ottomans lost empires, the Germans their Kaiser and Russians their Czar. The French were still reeling, as Britain and America emerged as supreme powers. Lord Edward Grey's game worked, all the continental powers fought and bled dry. And as continental empires died, Russia transformed itself into the Fatherland and became the world's first communist nation and a force to reckon with.
Once again there is trouble brewing in the Balkan Kosovo, the NATO commanders in Kosovo are on "high alert" and "ready to move more troops". Serbia and Albania both stake claim to Kosovo, while it's under NATO protection currently and an independent country, formed after the breakup of erstwhile Yugoslavia. But a larger game is at play on the Eastern front between NATO, Ukraine, and Russia. The Ukraine crisis is being used to bleed the EU and Russia dry. And as the war escalates, humanity is again at the precipice of doom. This could very well be the start of another long and embittered conflict that will affect all of us. And has only one winner - the US foreign policy pundits and the rising dollar.
At this point, it doesn't matter who and why the special military operation (SMO) started. As billions of dollars and 300,000 reservists are added to the mix, the situation is almost nuclear. Russia has been pushed into a corner, and the bear is in the mood to back down. Forget what Modi said. Putin's demeanour during the meeting clearly indicated why he thought of the Indian PM and his advice. Putin understands Indian double-speak and PR stunts knowing fairly well our choke points - Indian dependence on Russian arms and cheaper fossil fuels. So he continues to fight for the Russian motherland and the rights of Russian-speaking people beyond Russian borders. The referendum in the liberated areas of Donbas and support for the Serbian claim over Kosovo are both parts of new Pan-Slavism. But back to Ukraine, Russia is hell-bent on achieving SMO's goals-de-militarisation, de-Nazification, and liberation of the Donbas region. With voting in progress in the liberated areas, the last goal is more or less complete. Now the military power comes in.
Despite Zelensky's optics and broadcasts, there is no way Russia can be defeated militarily. Ukraine has already used its entire military might. The terms of engagement under SMO were quite different from their war or invasion doctrine. EU and NATO both know they cannot have regular troops fighting for Ukraine, and that means Ukraine will be given arms and money, but no muscle to use them. The International legion operating in Ukraine bolsters the tired Ukrainian army, but won't be enough to turn the tide. And the money pouring from the EU will soon begin to dry as winter comes and the gas prices sky rocket. EU will be forced to re-divert money and leave Ukraine in the cold.
Speculation is also getting high on the stock markets and rumours of imminent recession are already doing the rounds. The energy and food crisis is going to burst the artificial fiscal bubble sooner than later. Eventually, the Biden administration would have to make a deal with Putin and put the matter at rest. One shouldn't be surprised if Zelenskyy becomes the fall guy for the West.
But if the deal comes late, the EU's economy and Euro would plummet, whereas the Russians will be emboldened and recover faster than Germany, because they have the food and fossil fuels to outlast the EU.
But if the deal is not made, the portents of a European war are visible. There is no stopping the Russian war machine either. An escalation of war from the Ukrainian side will be worse for Europe and their armies. Without nuclear weapons, NATO nor the EU cannot match the Russian army's full strength. Eastern Europe could be devastated, and Ukraine could be reduced to ruins over this winter. And god forbid, nuclear weapons are used, then our planet and humanity at large will risk a nuclear Christmas this year.
(The author writes on agriculture & environment, and is a former Director — Policy & Outreach, National Seed Association of India. The views expressed are personal.)