India has become the most populous country in the world, but that is no longer seen as a problem
A few decades ago, the prospect of India overtaking China as the world’s most populous nation would have horrified most people in our country. Population was regarded as one of the biggest problems the country was facing. The challenges of uncontrollable population growth were taught in schools. At a very young age, children got to confront the Malthusian nightmare. Advertisements of Nirodh, the contraceptive manufactured by a public sector undertaking, were regularly played on radio sets. Kids often got curious to know about the ware that was being advertised so regularly, much to the dismay and embarrassment of their parents. Politicians frequently talked about the challenges the rising numbers presented to the nation; intellectuals debated over demographic trends. There were movies, television shows, etc., highlighting the issue. During the Emergency, coercive methods were used to promote population control programmes, the most notorious of them being that of vasectomy, or ‘nasbandi’ in Hindi. This resulted in a lot of excesses, and proved to be a factor in the defeat of Indira Gandhi in 1977. That was then. Now, political and thought leaders talk about ‘demographic dividend.’ For instance, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in January 2022 that the world has admitted that India has two limitless powers—demography and democracy. “The youth of India carry democratic values along with demographic dividend.” From the Malthusian apocalypse to demographic dividend! How times change—and with them our perspectives!
India will have 2.9 million more people than China by the middle of this year. Our population by mid-year is estimated at 1.4286 billion, against 1.4257 billion for China, as per the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA’s) ‘State of World Population Report’ for this year. Population has ceased to be an issue in our country primarily because its growth has been checked; and, fortunately, no coercive methods were used to do that. Further, the growth rate has declined among all communities. The total fertility rate (TFR)—that is, the average number of children born to any woman in her lifetime—declined to 2 in 2019-21 from 2.2 in 2015-16. This has been the result of economic growth and development; millions of Indians have managed to escape the vicious circle of extreme poverty and fast-growing population. It must be noted here though that the demographic dividend, if not properly deployed, can create new problems. The need of the hour is not just economic growth but growth with employment generation. While India is doing well in terms of GDP expansion—it remains the fastest growing large economy—the same cannot be said about job creation. It has to ensure that the supply-side constraints, which are the bane of our economy, are removed—the sooner, the better. This will not just expedite growth but also boost manufacturing, which is a huge job creator.