The new Canadian Government has brought with it a summer of hope. The Indo-Canadian troubles of last year seem to be melting into the past.
Though not out of the woods yet, both camps are making the right noises. Carney’s G7 invitation to India’s PM Narendra Modi has brought about mixed reactions across Canada, with Poilievre accepting that India was a necessary invitee and the Khalistani supporters’ meltdown.
This is the Canada’s CAR-NAMA moment for Carney and Narendra Modi (Namo) which could help turn the page on Indo-Canadian relationships. Carnama in Hindi translates to miracle or brave act.
Mark Carney’s Liberal Government has been eager to distance itself from Trudeau’s image and policies, whilst silently working back channels with global players, like India.
Anita Anand and Dr S Jaishankar’s phone diplomacy facilitated Modi’s acceptance for the G-7 after other partners felt it imperative for India to be present.
India and Canada have moved a step further, with an intelligence-sharing understanding, to combat the rising threat of international crime and extremism. This came out of the left field and has truly set the cat amongst the pigeons in Canada, in the wake of Justin Trudeau’s allegations against India last year. Canada’s headache has been the US tariffs against Canadian exports to the USA, making all things Canadian, more expensive. This in turn has driven prices up, affected jobs, and brought in higher inflation in Canada.
It is rumoured that a back-channel trade deal between India and Canada may not be far away, signalling Canada’s return as an Indian frontline trading partner, not merely as America’s 51st state, but as a proud nation rich in heritage and the world’s largest natural resources.
India is an insatiable consumer of minerals, fuels, pulses, fertilisers, steel, pearls & precious stones, oil & gas, and nuclear fuel.
India’s earliest nuclear reactors were built with Canada’s help in the early 1970s and this could kickstart a new wave of mini-reactor technology across India.
There are also products like lumber, organic chemicals, plastics and foreign students across Canada.
According to the COMTRADE database on international trade, India’s imports from Canada were US $6.26 Billion during 2024, this was as against 7.5 billion in 2023 when the Trudeau allegations hit trade. Given the jump from US 2.7 billion in 2022 to US$ $7.5 billion in 2023, there is ample scope to increase that number to US$10 billion in the coming years by 2026/2027.
As per an Agriculture Canada report, in 2022, India imported Can $35.4 billion worth of processed food and beverages, with Canada supplying only Can $20.9 million (0.1 per cent) of that total. There is a case for Canada to increase that by 10x within the next year or two. India’s largest imports from the world were palm oil, soya bean oil, and sunflower oil, and Canada’s share was negligible or non-existent.
Defence, Nuclear, automobile and housing are just a few of the sectors for Indo-Canadian cooperation, with India being one of the major QUAD players in the Pacific security region.
With the Nijjar case locked into the Canadian legal system, the gaze now moves to India’s concerns about Khalistani terror within Canada, and their transnational terror and extortion plots in India.
Car-Nama will have to learn to hyphenate their relationships with the USA, as both nations India and Canada, learn to deal with the American tariffs and maintain their happy positions of strength in the relationship. This is a moment of reckoning for the Mark Carney Government to seize the initiative and he will find Modi’s India a very willing ally.
(The writer is an Analyst, Lawyer, Author & commentator, who writes on International relations, Aviation and law. Views are personal)