A possible third wave of COVID-19 will show how well the lessons from the previous two waves have been learnt
There is a prediction that a third wave of COVID-19 may strike India in August. The prediction by a market research enterprise, yet to be commented upon by the scientists, says the country will see daily cases of 10,000 from the second fortnight of July and they will rise from the second week of August, peaking a month later. For academic interest, the report says that India achieved its second weave peak on May 7. Between that date and now, in a matter of two months, what India did to prepare itself for another wave will show how well the lessons from the previous two waves have been learnt. There is a slew of physical measures the State Governments have taken — adequate oxygen supplies, oxygen plants, additional wards in hospitals and oxygenated beds to handle a rush of patients, separate arrangements for infants and children, stocking medical supplies and training doctors, nurses and volunteers. The general approach to lifting the second lockdown is cautious. Containment zones continue to exist in places that report new cases. Tracking and tracing is going on, at least in the urban areas. Events that can lead to congregations of people continue to be banned. The authorities are strictly enforcing the safety protocols. The Lajpat Nagar Market in Delhi was asked to close down for violating the protocol and the traders were issued show cause notices. Above all, despite reports of shortages, the vaccination drive is going on full throttle. This is half the battle won.
The future battle against COVID-19 needs to be fought with global data transparency as the main weapon. Most countries are through with the second or even third wave of the Coronavirus and there is a plethora of data scattered around and it needs to be collated and made accessible to scientists formulating their national anti-COVID policies. As the Rockefeller Foundation said recently, local knowledge economies need to be built all over the world so that people locally can have their data available instantly. Every time a scientist in a country identifies a variant, the data should be uploaded onto a transparent and accessible system. The lack of transparency in disclosing scientific information leads to panic and rumour-mongering. Governments have a tendency to think that people need to be prepared before giving shocking information — like a new variant or a new wave — to them. After two mighty waves, people are experienced enough and trust is not built by delaying information. The first two waves revealed that the problems show the need to fund a public health prevention effort and ensure its replenishing after the crisis is over. A faster response to predictions of virus threats, speedier validation of data and rapid risk assessment will help avoid a repetition of the second wave disaster. The Prime Minister recently offered the CoWIN platform to the world for their vaccination programmes. It better serves the purpose if turned into an accessible global data crunching app.