With Oxford trials showing positive results in the first stage and India commencing its own tests, a vaccine may emerge
As the Coronavirus plays havoc with economies and lives around the world and goes into the community spread stage in India, throwing up visions of large scale illness, deaths and a tottering healthcare ultimately collapsing, there’s some good news on the horizon. Early human trials of a vaccine developed by global biopharmaceutical company AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford showed that it is not only safe but seemed to build an immune response in volunteers. Not only did the people injected with the vaccine build neutralising antibodies, there was also a spike in their numbers of T cells or white blood cells that protect humans from pathogens and actively destroy infected cells. Encouragingly, the WHO has described the Oxford vaccine as the leading candidate in a worldwide race to halt the pandemic. But researchers are taking a cautious approach as it is early days yet and there is still much work to be done before they can confirm if the vaccine will manage the pandemic. By their own admission, they do not know as yet how strong an immune response is needed to offer long-term protection.
The next phase of the clinical trials, therefore, is even more crucial. The Phase III trials, in low-to-middle income countries like Brazil, South Africa and India, will demonstrate the vaccine’s efficacy among a large number of people. We would be lucky if a formal rollout happens by the year-end. And out of the two billion doses that will be created, a whopping 300 million will go to the US. Plus, as the UK will have the intellectual property rights over it, other countries, including India, will need to enter into commercial deals. However, the one advantage that India has over other not so well-heeled nations is that AstraZeneca has entered into a deal with the Pune-based Serum Institute of India for trials and to supply one billion doses for low-and-middle-income countries before 2020 end. Logically, we should get the dibs on the shots. However, the good news is that the Oxford vaccine is not the only candidate and if researchers at Bernstein are to be believed, though the vaccine has shown positive data, the bar set by programmes from Pfizer Inc, BioNtech SE and Moderna Inc is much higher. The titers from immunised patients were lower than convalescent patients, whereas BioNtech and Moderna vaccines both elicited IgGs substantially higher than convalescent controls. India has two trials running concurrently in Delhi and Hyderabad with results expected in October. Whatever the clinical efficiencies at this stage, at least a beginning has been made. Humanity can rest assured that help is at hand and soon.