The main architect behind the Yemen war is Saudi Prince Mohammed. The war is expensive, but the country can’t make a premature exit, because of its domestic compulsions and for the widely acclaimed standing of the Prince. At the same time, Iran-backed Houthi militias are not giving up. Therefore the conflict is set to last longer than expected
The current civil war in Yemen has its roots in the glorious Arab Spring of 2011. Much before the arrival of the new revolution in the Arab nations, Yemeni Government has had a troubled relation with Ansar Allah, a Shia group based in northern part of the country. The Ansar Allah is also known as the Houthis, which has developed a bad taste for the successive regimes in Sana’a. However with the coming of the Arab Spring, the then President of the country, Ali Saleh, a Shia leader, had to quit and make way for fresh election. And in this election which was fought on single candidate ballot, his sitting Vice-President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, a Sunni leader, took over the presidency. As the Houthis boycotted the election and former President Saleh threw his weight behind them, the country was just inviting trouble and simply opening the door for an immediate tussle between the Houthis and the Government forces. With a ceasefire in place till the early days of 2015, the Government in Sana’a was struggling to keep a civilian administration work. But as soon as the ceasefire broke down in 2015, the Houthis moved towards Sana’a which led to an open engagement of Saudi Arabia in Yemen.
The war assumed a unique significance in the Arab world as it has overtly or covertly drawn both the vital powers to the war — one side is Iran, representing the Shia supremacy and the other side is Saudi Arabia, the so-called guardian of the Sunnis in the region. Fearing an aggressive Houthi-led Government on its southern border, Saudis have jumped into the mess to aid the forces of Hadi. More than the rescue of Hadi, Saudi rulers were more apprehensive about the larger than life presence of an Iranian proxy State of the Houthis on the southern part of the country. The scale of the campaign and the use of the forces from the Saudi side have surpassed the current Russian offensive in Syria for supporting the Government forces of Bashar al-Assad. What is complicating the war temper is the full assistance from western allies in logistics, arms supply, critical intelligence gathering and finally, a brilliant coordination in air-to-air refueling to fly more sorties daily for the Saudi forces. An incessant supply of arms and the state-of-the-art facilities for attacking power can definitely extend the war in Yemen. And this is taking place at a faster speed and accuracy than the forces of Vladimir Putin are conducting in Syria.
Meanwhile, the Houthis, one of the toughest forces to ignore, is advancing rather than retreating from the capital of Yemen. Despite a sustained and brutal bombing campaign of the Saudi-led forces, they have made virtually no significant progress in retaking the rest of the country from the Houthis. Most areas of Yemen’s north-west are in full control of the Houthis and these zones have witnessed rising brutalities of the militia. The most disheartening part of the Houthis fight is that currently they are recruiting child soldiers which may lead to excess exploitation of the young people in the name of war.
An Amnesty International report states that the British cluster bombs have been used by the Saudis in Yemen. Besides, other international human rights organisations like the UN Human Rights Council, Human Rights Watch and the Oxfam have raised the alarm bells across global platforms that there has been a documented use of deadly western weapons against civilian installations like market, factories, mosques, hospitals, warehouses, etc. Thus it is found that half the civilian casualties in Yemen in the last more than 16 months war has all come from air strikes. What do all these meanIJ Is it justifiable for the advanced democracies of the world like Britain, France and America to pound innocent people simply for the sake of supporting an old allyIJ Or do they have vested interest wherein they see their future gainsIJ Or do they fear that other global giants like China and Russia may come forward to help Saudi Arabia if they don’t take their turnIJ But the moot point is that for America, West Asia has always remained as critically important for promoting its economic and strategic pursuits. Else, its reach in the vast oil reach zones will simply fade which no successive regimes in Washington will allow to happen. As for France and Britain, they being the former colonial biggies, their alignment and realignment with the nations of the West Asia have hardly been questioned by anyone. A global war watchdog called Campaign Against Arms Trade recently revealed that Saudi Arabia is Britain’s largest arms market which amounts to $3.8 billion and for America, it is even much bigger investment. Whether it is war or peace, the advanced nations have never hesitated to do business. But can doing business at the cost of the lives of innocent people be justifiedIJ Only time will tell the truth.
Though the Saudis have stressed that the conflict in Yemen is a proxy war between them and Iran, in reality Iran is tangentially engaged into the conflict. Fearing a backlash from Obama Administration, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is making a calculated move in assisting the Houthi rebels as an outright overture may jeopardise the post-nuclear concessions offered to the country by the former. Hence the kind of help offered by Tehran does nowhere come closer to the massive campaign the Saudis have undertaken. Today, Iran needs the US more than what the Saudis. Also, Obama without making major fuss is directing his forces to come up with an all-out help to the Saudis with an attempt to make up with the old ally after signing the historic nuclear deal with Iran.
In the run up to the Yemeni civil strife, naturally the only party which is reaping fast benefits is al-Qaeda. The organisation has occupied vast swathes of lands in the eastern hinterlands of Yemen wherein it operates with near impunity. In recent months, it has been reported that al-Qaeda is making fast gains even towards Aden, the examining strongholds of Hadi and his forces. But if al-Qaeda is advancing, then Hadi and his allied forces are not capable of preventing the notorious gangs of the global jehadi forces for sure. For all the forces operating in Yemen, they must see to it that al-Qaeda, which is going hog wild, should be nipped in the bud. It’s everyone’s common enemy and once they firm up, Yemen will be nobody’s. Mind it.
As of today, the war in Yemen is receiving vanishingly little attention in international media unlike the war in Syria and Iraq. Though the Yemen war has almost completed more than a year, yet the attempts for resolving the conflict have not seen the light of the day. With conflict raging in Yemen, it is near certain that the country is inching towards an abyss. Many of the recent war historians are of the view that some 90 years ago the imperial air forces of Great Britain bombed the unruly tribes of the Arabian Peninsula to establish the rule of Abdel Aziz Ibn Saud, the founder of the modern Saudi Arabia. But today, the global history has taken a different turn — together with Britain, America and France, Saudi Arabia is bombing and destroying Yemen. Over the years, Saudis, with massive oil wealth have almost become a regional hegemon of sort. Beyond the oil power, the solid backing of the US has made them an enviable power in the West Asia and in Yemen. It is just showcasing the same. Is it going to restore law and order in YemenIJ Will it help bring back the country into a civilian rule soonIJ Is it a tough battle to fight out Shia supremacy of Iran by the Saudi royal familyIJ Alas! Yemen is slowing slipping into another war theatre in the region. Thanks to the US backing, Saudi Arabia is struggling hard to push out the Houthis, but, still, the mess has not been cleared, and rather the latter is tightening its grip over the capital city of Sana’a.
Kuwait is currently the meeting point of the delegations from the Houthis and the representatives of Hadi. No peace deal or power sharing deal has so far been arrived at. The UN’s proposal for a power-sharing agreement between the rebels and the Government forces are rejected by Hadi. He is interested in teaming up with the hardliners and may try to come back to Sana’a. But this will be an uphill task. The Houthis with the backing of Iranians may not be an easy target to be knocked out sooner or later. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, the main backer of Hadi, is satisfied with its performance in the Yemen war. It is in fact the biggest campaign that modern Saudi Arabia has launched with the exception of heading an international coalition forces. And the main architect behind the war is no other than Saudi Prince Mohammed. So it is not going to be an easy exit from Yemen. The war is expensive, but the country can’t make a premature exit, because of its domestic compulsions and for the widely acclaimed standing of the Prince. Neither Iran-backed Houthi militias are giving up, so the war last longer than expected.
(The writer is Senior Editor, The Pioneer)