All political parties, big and small, national and regional, are keeping their options open for a post-election scenario
The four southern States which had always played a crucial role in the formation of the Government at the Centre may not give a decisive verdict in favour of the UPA or the NDA this time, because of the shrinking of both the fronts. The Congress formed the UPA Government in 2004 and 2009 with the blessings of the south while the NDA Government too had its share from the southern States.
Interestingly, both the national parties are on the backfoot as far as their electoral fortunes are concerned in view of the stronghold of regional parties and the lack of arithmetic. The BJP is a minor player, except in Karnataka. The triumph of the Congress in the 2009 poll was largely due to its victory in Andhra Pradesh, the DMK’s performance in Tamil Nadu and the NDA’s all-round losses due to anti-incumbency.
The 130 seats from the south are up for grabs. Andhra Pradesh has 42 seats — 17 in Telangana and 25 in Andhra Pradesh. It had been the citadel of the Congress even at its worst times. The rise of the Telugu Desam Party eclipsed the Congress for some time, but the party won the State and contributed 29 seats to the UPA’s kitty in 2004 and 33 seats in 2009, wiping out the TDP. But the party has squandered the goodwill by the bifurcation of the State. Its calculations regarding the merger of the TRS with the Congress in Telangana has gone awry. The rise of the three new parties may also affect the Congress’s prospects in Seemandhra.
The YSR Congress led by Jagan Mohan Reddy is ready to challenge the Congress. Congress Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy, who opposed the move, has launched his own outfit after the bifurcation. The TDP is making a desperate bid to come back, and its alliance with the BJP is almost final. This should benefit both the parties.
In Tamil Nadu, the fight has always been between the two Dravidian parties — the DMK and the AIADMK — and the Congress, since it lost power in 1967, used to ride piggyback to power. But the Congress is isolated this time and may not get any seat. With the DMK facing internal quarrels and split in the party chief M Karunanidhi’s family, the AIADMK seems to be in a strong position and is poised to get about 25 to 30 seats. The AIADMK is fighting alone for the first time since its inception. Its chief J Jayalalithaa has announced many freebies in her party manifesto, and has provided a good administration so far. The BJP has forged an alliance in Tamil Nadu with the DMDK, the PMK, the MDMK and two smaller regional outfits. This front may get four to five seats.
The BJP had won Karnataka for the first time in the south in 2008, and Mr BS Yeddyurappa formed the Government. But he bowed out soon due to corruption charges that was tainted with Although the BJP completed its term facing many crises, it lost badly to the Congress in the 2013 Assembly poll. This is perhaps the only State in the south from where the BJP hopes to get 10 to 15 seats after the return of Mr Yeddyurappa. The Aam Aadmi Party has also fielded candidates in the 28 constituencies.
Kerala is a politically-aware State and the Congress-led UDF and the CPI(M)-led lDF have been alternating in power. The lDF seemed to have the edge sometime back, but the ruling UDF appears to have wrested the initiative for now because of the left’s internal squabbles. A smooth seat-sharing process with its allies and a political coup engineered by the UDF seems to have swung the pendulum in favour of the Congress. Optimists expect 12 to 14 seats for the party, while the rest may go to the left Front. The BJP, for many years now, has remained an electoral non-entity and has not won a single seat in this southern State.
All these go to show that the Congress may at best get about 30 to 35 seats from the south while the BJP may bag about 10 to 15 seats. The lack of arithmetic is gong to hurt both the parties. Ms Jayalalithaa might play a prominent role if the AIADMK bags 30 seats. Smaller parties like the TRS, the YSR Congress, the DMK, the PMK, the MDMK, the DMDK and the left front could play a crucial role depending on the number of seats they get. With the possibility of a hung Parliament, all parties are keeping their options open for a post-poll scenario.