Zia's arrest, which led to the BNP becoming leaderless, confused and dysfunctional, has made the party irrelevant today. Meanwhile, Hasina is all set to emerge stronger in the upcoming election
Coming December, Sheikh Hasina’s Awami league-led 14 party alliance will be seeking re-election for a third term in Bangladesh’s 11th Parliamentary poll with a mixed bag of historic achievements of her decade-long rule with an anti-incumbency baggage heavily weighing against her. But with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) supremo Khaleda Zia getting convicted in a corruption case and being sentenced to five years in jail, Bangladesh’s poll-scape has suddenly undergone a sea-change.
Since Bangladesh’s election rules debar a convict from contesting any poll, chances of Zia joining the election fray is next to impossible, unless, of course, verdict acquits her of all charges. So, the big question is: Will the coming Parliamentary election be held with or without herIJ
In an appeal to the High Court, Zia sought acquittal of embezzlement charges to the tune of Taka three crore received as a donation for an orphanage named after her late husband. Considering her age (she is 73 now), the High Court may grant her bail, but with warrants of arrest issued in her name in other pending cases, chances of her coming out of prison and leading the Opposition charge seem remote.
Her elder son, Tarique Rahman, who is presently the acting chairperson of the party, has also been convicted by a special court and sentenced to 10 years in prison for laundering Rs 21 crore to the US and Singapore. The US and Singapore Governments together seized the laundered amount and deposited it with the Bangladesh Government.
A beleaguered Begum has already warned that the BNP will boycott the coming election if she is not allowed to contest. Having no faith in the Election Commission’s (EC) credibility to hold free and fair polls, she believes that with her in jail, the Awami league-led alliance would be emboldened to indulge in reckless poll rigging. She argues: “Why should BNP participate in a poll whose purpose is to give official seal and legitimacy to a farcical exerciseIJ”
But the BNP’s trusted ally, Jama’at-e-Islami, is exerting tremendous pressure on Zia to take part in the election. Jamat’s concern is that Islam-oriented votes should not go waste and must get consolidated. Moreover, BNP’s participation is much needed to consolidate the Islamic ideals among voters.
Actually, the BNP is vertically split on the issue of election boycott. While the mother-son duo are for boycotting the poll, there is an influential section in the party comprising senior leaders, who want to take part in the election with their chairperson behind the bars. This faction argues that the EC, having disqualified Jamat from taking part in the election (as its registration has been revoked), the BNP is the only available major Opposition face acceptable to the people.
By boycotting the election for the second time in a row in five years, the BNP would be making itself politically irrelevant in Bangladesh politics and cutting itself completely from Parliamentary politics and forcing itself into oblivion.
Having stayed outside the domain of Parliamentary politics for the past four years, its link with the masses has become tenuous. Boycotting the election again would certainly spell BNP’s organisational doom and may even split the party into two, much to the Awami league’s advantage. This faction also believes that an imprisoned Zia might bring electoral dividend for the BNP. For instance, leading intellectuals have started saying that if Begum Zia could be imprisoned for embezzling Taka three crore, why should businessmen, bankers and bureaucrats, close to the ruling party, go scot free despite being involved in scams running into thousands of croresIJ
The BNP is also beset with leadership crisis of serious proportion. Before going to jail, Zia had made Rahman the party’s acting chairperson, which did not go down well with senior party leaders. Rahman is not acceptable to the party’s senior influential leaders who feel he is not in touch with Bangladesh’s ground reality, having lived in self-imposed exile in london for over a decade.
Also, he is devoid of organisational skills and leadership qualities. His hot-headed demeanor and links with the underworld are also held against him. Some of these leaders believe that if Rahman were to be the country’s Prime Minister, he, with his reckless style of functioning, would soon land Bangladesh into chaos and an irretrievable mess.
Growing chasm between the BNP and its once trusted ally, Jamat, is also out in the open. Jamat cadres, who always formed the vanguard of BNP’s violent anti-Awami league agitation, did not show up to protest against Zia’s arrest. Nor did its leaders issue a statement condemning her arrest. With most senior Jamat leaders either being dead or having ended up at the gallows for committing war crimes in 1971, this avowedly pro-Pakistan party has become leaderless, confused, and dysfunctional. Many senior BNP leaders no longer consider Jamat an asset but a liability, for whose misdeeds and excesses they don’t want to be held accountable. It’s not surprising that both parties are drifting apart despite having identical pro-Islamic and pro-Pak ideology.
Consequently, BNP’s tactical line towards Jamat has undergone a sea change in recent months. Its leaders no longer use Jamat cadres for any confrontational politics. In fact, BNP leaders are seeking to overhaul its violent and destructive image of the past. Politics of death and destruction that the BNP and Jamat cadres had jointly unleashed on Bangladesh, while boycotting the 2014 poll, have now been temporarily replaced by a Gandhian style of agitation. Jamat’s votes have always played a crucial role in helping BNP to go to power. So, any sudden disconnect between the two will adversely reflect on the BNP’s poll prospects. Jamat’s dilemma is that it has no alternative to BNP as its political ally. Actually, it needs BNP more for its political survival than vice versa. While BNP has a solid and unwavering vote base of 35 per cent, Jamat’s numbers have remained static at five per cent.
Hasina, to retain power, is enlarging her Muslim support base. Her party has wooed over the Islamic fundamentalist outfit, Hefazat-e-Islam, once an ally of the BNP, by conceding to its main demand to exclude from school and college curriculum all works of ‘Hindu authors,’ including that of Tagore’s. For the present, this has made Hefajat very happy. But whether this gamble will pay off on election day remains a subject of intense speculation in Dhaka.
One of the biggest challenges to confront Hasina in the upcoming elecrtion will be whether she will be able to purge at least 100 of her Ministers and party MPs who are neck deep in corruption. Denying them renomination and purging such a large of her party MPs will certainly cause disaffection, which will be a hazardous step to take before the election.
“Being Sheikh Mujib’s daughter she alone can take this bold step which will go a long way in refurbishing the image of the party. She has to demonstrate she is not only intolerant towards terror but also against all kinds of corruption. This one move on her part will help Awami league sweep the election”, said Hasanul Haq Inu. Sheikh Hasina’s Information Minister.
BNP’s main bane is its negative popular perception. The mother and son’s image is so pervasively negative that it does not inspire confidence among Bangladeshis that their country will develop and prosper under their joint stewardship. People still recall with horror how Islamic terror groups had thrived under Khaleda’s rule when Bangladesh, as a nation, had come to be known as a “cocoon of terror” internationally.
On the other hand, Hasina’s personal image being corruption-free and her role in transforming Bangladesh from a least developed country into a developing one has earned her global acclaim and reinstated people’s confidence. Bangladesh, under her rule, has transformed from being a beleaguered nation to a model of sustained growth and development.
(The writer is a veteran Kolkata-based journalist)