large swathes of India don’t have a significant BJP presence. So how would the Modi juggernaut fare thereIJ The answer lies in understanding the uniqueness of the coming election-one where national persona would matter
Magic, whether Modi’s or anyone else’s, is a misnomer. Very few things in politics work by magic, or like magic. But the question here is not one of etymology. The question is, whether Modi’s juggernaut, once it begins to roll, will roll on regardless through states where his party, the BJP, has a marginal presence — like the coastal states of West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra, Tamil Nadu or Kerala. Together, these states send some 200-odd members to the lok Sabha — by no means an insubstantial sum.
Here I have a submission. The maturity of the Indian voter has been proved a number of times by the difference in voting patterns in the lok Sabha as opposed to that of the state Assemblies. The latest example is the score of the Congress in UP in the 2009 elections (20 out of 80) as against that in the Assembly elections of 2012 (28 out of 403). Granted that the stock of the Congress has fallen substantially all over the country in the meanwhile, the conclusion cannot be avoided that the voter had been discriminating in voting for an all-India party for the lok Sabha, while all but rejecting it for the State Assembly. Similarly back in 1980, the voter all over India rejected the hastily-pasted-together Janata Party in favour of the delinquent, yet resolute and coherent Congress led by Indira Gandhi.
It could be argued that the voter had erred in electing no one, as a result of which we had a joke-of-a-government, first under the somnolent Deve Gowda, thereafter the Pakistan-lover Inder Gujral. So why could the same not be repeated again, public memory being proverbially shortIJ It is not yet clear whether the Congress Party will expressly pitch Rahul Baba against Narendra Modi, though they have already done so by implication. And hardly anyone will doubt that the Baba stands no chance, in spite of the Food
Security Bill, oodles of money to be spent on the election and a very subservient section of the media (some of whom, incidentally, seem about to be abandon ship like those rats). The choice, therefore seems to be between a Modi-led NDA and a 1996-type chaos.
Therefore, it could be further argued, why shouldn’t West Bengal divide its votes between Mamata Banerjee and CPI(M); Tamil Nadu likewise between DMK and AIADMK, and Kerala between UDF and lDF; Odisha totally in favour in Navin Patnaik's BJD. What Andhra would do would seem to be what lawyers call an extremely ‘vexed question’. In its alacrity to win over Telangana, the Congress has failed to do so, and at the same time alienated Seemandhra, that is Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema. In such circumstances, why shouldn’t Andhra divide its votes among Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP and Jagan Reddy’s YSR Congress, with no more than a few crumbs for the CongressIJ
Why could not any or all of these happenIJ And if they do, why shouldn’t there be a repeat of the 1996 chaos, with a re-election in, maybe, a yearIJ It is my submission that these are unlikely scenarios, because of two reasons: first, public memory is short all right, but some remnants have a habit of sticking on. And secondly, because on the one hand the voting mass has become substantially younger, on the other hand the media exposure of the public has increased manifold. The combined effect of these two, I would argue, would tilt the balance substantially in favour of a Modi-led NDA and against a 1996-type chaos.
looking at it in a different way, look at the protagonists involved at an individual level in case of a repeat of 1996. All that Mamata Banerjee’s MPs can do sitting in the lok Sabha is to try to get instructions from her over cellphone, twiddling their thumbs for the rest of the time. There is, of course, another possibility — that Mamata herself may throw her hat in the ring in the race to Prime Ministership, and the result would be very interesting indeed. The Biju Janata Dal has a moderately
capable, clean parliamentarian in Baijayanta Panda, but that is about all. And among the rest — whoIJ A RajaIJ KanimozhiIJ lalu Prasad (assuming he does not go to jail in the fodder scam in the meanwhile)IJ MulayamIJ Ram VilasIJ Who will make Prime MinisterIJ How will he or she be chosenIJ How long will he or she lastIJ
I would argue that I am certainly not the only one whom these questions strike. They strike many among the average voter too — some more, some less, some coherently, some vaguely. And that includes the average voter in states like West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. And, given the discrimination that the voter has shown in the past, few among them would opt for the second alternative.
In other words, people who might not have voted BJP otherwise, will this time vote for them. For two reasons. First, there is the leadership of Modi — resolute, proven, forward-looking. And secondly, because there is no one else to vote for.