The Telengana announcement has dealt a body blow to the BJP’s prospects in Andhra Pradesh; in Maharashtra aligning with MNS means wipeout in UP; in Karnataka it’s Yeddy or nothing and as for Tamil Nadu and Kerala — forget it
Torrential monsoon rains down the Vindhyas produces a discernible clamor for change. The so-called “national” parties are posed with a serious challenge in the southern states — where do they get their “regional allies” fromIJ Whatever the projections by the pollsters for the 2014 general elections, the five states down south hold the key for any formation be it NDA, UPA or The Third Front. Many aspirants, political confabulations for the 2014 elections have already started working on the number game which is a cruel reality in Indian democracy.There are indications that the parties are looking at early elections, apparently by identifying the means that would give them leverage over the “national” partner. Each state being unique and undergoing some form of political change or the other, it is absolutely essential for the aspirants to power in Delhi to appreciate the situation of each of the prospective southern allies.
With 177 constituencies out of 543 parliamentary constituencies in five states (I have included Maharashtra in this grouping owing to its non-Hindi orientation) the regional parties represent a plethora of demographic and economic interests.
BJP “lost”
The BJP, which formed its first ever southern government in Karnataka in 2009 is losing steam, thanks to the indecisiveness of the political leadership to resolve issues. Now, its next big worry is to hold on to its vote share. The party had won 19 lok Sabha seats in 2009 under the leadership of lingayat strongman BS Yeddyurappa, but is now in a state of decimation.
The exit of Yeddyurappa, who brought BJP to power by consolidating his caste appeal has dealt the kiss of death to the saffron vote by walking out and launching his own party. Many political pundits feel that the only hope for BJP is to somehow persuade Mr Yeddyurappa to return to the party fold. If this happens, the BJP might be successful in stymieing the Congress’ coming sweep in Karnataka.
Many well-thought political strategies have helped the Congress in the past like the consolidation of the backward classes and the adoption of strategies like conferring special status to the Hyderabad-Karnataka region has changed. Many populist social schemes like providing rich at one rupee, loan waiver to farmers and other schemes for the poor have given new chief minister Siddaramaiah a ride on the crest of popularity.
Yeddyurappa’s act of forming and fielding his own party in the recent Assembly election has led to the saffron party’s washout. Yeddyurappa not only destroyed the BJP but also kept his 10 per cent vote share intact to send a message to his former high command that they have no choice but grovel before him for considering returning to the fold. Yeddyurappa has kept his marketability intact by initiating talks with Mulayam Singh Yadav for a possible alignment with the Third Front. If the BJP nurses hopes of preventing this, they had better rush to him with an appeasement policy. For, the relevance of its poster boy, Narendra Modi, depends on this sulking former swayam sevak.
Another state party, JD(Secular), run by former prime minister HD Deve Gowda and his sons has clearly consolidated the Vokkaliga caste vote (the Vokkaligas are another dominant community like lingayats in Karnataka) and would play to the tune of the Third Front. As the BJP has no presence in Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, Narendra Modi has got to get into negotiations with the powers that be for post-election tie-ups. Of course, Kerala with its 26 seats is a no-go because the twin poles of that state’s polity are both wedded to secularism. In Maharashtra, NCP chief Sharad Pawar, is also looking at the prospect of consolidating the regional parties in these four states with the hope of gaining some throttle to dictate terms in the post-2014 UPA.
With the death of Balasaheb T Thakarey, Maharashtra politics has undergone a change. New combinations are emerging with Pawar looking at all out effort to gain more out of his Sugar politics across these states. The BJP-Shiv Sena combine won 10 seats each against 25 seats of the Congress-NCP in 2009. Big changes have happened in the political sphere of the state since. The split in the Shiv Sena has left the BJP scrambling between a rock and a hard place. One of the two fractions is weak and unreliable while the other is strong and anti-north Indian. By aligning with the former, Narendra Modi will gain nothing in terms of Maharashtra seats but will succeed in keeping its position as a national party intact. On the other hand, an alliance with Raj Thakeray’s MNS would mean disaster for Modi in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
According to an opinion poll by the Centre for Study of Developing Society (CSDS) and a private English news channel, the Congress-NCP alliance may win 23 to 27 seats while the BJP-Shiv Sena combine may bag 18 to 22 seats in Maharashtra. Raj Thackeray-led MNS may win 0 to 2 seats. As for Tamil Nadu, BJP as a national party never had a presence there. Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa may be friendly with Narendra Modi but that may not mean she would take her AIADMK lock stock and barrel into the NDA.
The formation of Telangana State ahead of general elections is a blow to the effort of NDA consolidation. The decision was timely and a clever move by the Congress to take on the TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu and rebel leader Jagan Reddy who is in jail on corruption charges.