New caste equations are taking shape for the next month’s Gujarat Assembly poll even as two opinion polls — one by Times Now-VMR and another by India Today-Axis My India — have given the BJP between 118-134 and 115-125 seats respectively in the 182-member Assembly. Despite facing double anti-incumbency, the ruling BJP exudes confidence about returning to power for the fifth consecutive term based on its own calculations but the ground situation is complex.
Interestingly, for the first time, the major opponent, Congress, is fancying a win since 1995 in the State. While the BJP won 115 seats in the 2012 Assembly election, the Congress has not crossed the figure of 61 in the State Assembly ever since 1995.
When everything else has failed, the caste is the last resort for political parties. A demoralised Congress is hedging on the hope that caste polarisation is the most effective counter to the religious polarisation by the BJP and is pinning its hopes on three emerging young caste leaders.
The Congress has fielded the old war-horse, former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot to stich the new coalition. Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s political secretary, Ahmed Patel, has deep roots in the State and Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi is also in the forefront, holding secret parleys with the youth icons with whose help he wants to win the State.
A day after Diwali, the Congress offered tickets to Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakor — the three leaders who are fighting at different levels for the ouster of the BJP in Gujarat. State Congress president, Bharatsinh Solanki called them the three important factors with crucial vote bases — Patidars, OBCs and Dalits. While Hardik Patel (24) has led a protracted Patidar agitation for quotas for Patels, Mevani (36) left his legal practice to lead protests against public flogging of Dalits in Una last year. Thakor emerged as the face of Gujarat’s OBCs — about 37 per cent of the State’s population — when he began a protest against liquor addiction.
While Patel, convener of the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) and Mevani, convener of the Rashtriya Dalit Adhikar Manch have openly declared anti-BJP stand, Thakor, A backward caste (OBC) leader and convener of the Gujarat Kshatriya Thakor Sena, joined the Congress recently, thereby boosting its morale. Thakor Sena claims to have a team of 27-28 lakh volunteers, spread across 9,500 villages in Gujarat. Interestingly, the Congress also extended its invitation to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
Why is the Congress going back to the Congress routeIJ It is because of its original vision of KHAM (Kshatriyas, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim) formula that brought the party to power in 1980 with a record victory. Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi even chants in his rallies ‘Jai Bhim’, ‘Jai Mataji’ and ‘Jai Sardar’ to woo the three agitating groups of Dalits, OBCs and Patels. Former Gujarat Chief Minister, Madhavsinh Solanki, was the author of this formula but it had later alienated the dominant castes.
Going for a caste coalition is all very well in paper but it is a complex issue. The support of 37 per cent OBCs and 16 per cent Patels are crucial for both parties. Together they can influence 111 seats. Of the 4.33 crore voters, 65 per cent are young voters in the 20-35 year age group and are participants in the reservation movements. lack of jobs is a big problem faced by them.
Hardik wants Patels included in the OBC list. The OBCs in Gujarat constitute 37 per cent of the State’s population and enjoy 27 per cent reservation. The dilemma for any Government would be how to provide reservation to a socially dominant caste without alienating the OBCs, who are already benefitting from the quota. The Congress talks of a formula by keeping 49 per cent reservation for OBCs, SC/ST intact while providing additional 20 per cent reservation to the other communities by passing a resolution in the State Assembly once in power.
Second, it is clear that with the entry of Thakor, the Congress proposes to target the OBCs as its core constituency. The challenge would be to accommodate the demands of Hardik and Alpesh, as there is traditional rivalry between the OBCs and Patels.
Third, there is friction between the OBCs and the Dalits in villages as the latter feel they are suppressed by the former. It is not known how the Congress proposes to handle the contradictions.
However, this new caste coalition has made the BJP nervous. The remarkable response to the young trio’s campaign to defeat the BJP has made the party uncertain. Demonetisation and GST have upset the traditional vote-base of traders and small businessmen, the diamond merchants are on the warpath.
BJP strategists think that Alpesh and Mevani represent competing caste groups and would find it difficult to come together on the ground. Also, all the three caste leaders are untested in polls so far, though they are crowd pullers. Whether they can convert their popularity into votes is a big question mark.
Rahul Gandhi has certainly emerged better in his Gujarat campaign so far but his efforts are only a shot in the dark. The results depend on a lot of factors, including booth management, converting the crowds into votes, and proper ticket distribution but the caste is indeed a dominant factor. The KHAM experiment might work if Dame luck smiles at him. One week is said to be long in politics and we have more than a month to predict the results.
(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)