The South China Sea dispute about territory and sovereignty over a vast ocean area and two island chains popularly known as the Paracels and the Spratlys is fast becoming ‘a potential zone of conflict’ in Asia.
China and Vietnam claim the entire area of the South China Sea and islands as their territory, whereas Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan have overlapping claims over them. China’s claim is purely based on historical surveying expeditions, fishing activities and continuous naval patrols which date back to as early as the 15th century.
Many who believe that American predominance is unlikely to fade anytime soon must be careful about China’s ‘quiet rise’. Also it would be naïve to argue that the US power preponderance brings an end to power rivalry in global politics and at the same time, provides the US an opportunity to manage global security.
The US requires multilateralism and cooperation from other States to achieve its policy preferences in maintaining global peace. Though Charles Krauthammer advocated for a ‘unipolar moment’ led by the US, others like Kenneth Waltz strongly stated that other emerging powers would soon challenge the US dominance and make way for a systemic balance of power in international politics.
Indeed the US ‘pivot to Asia’ has been creating heightened concerns in China about its intentions. Simultaneously, America’s constant endeavour to expand military ties with allies and partners and forces in Asia are viewed by many in Beijing as a sustained effort to contain China’s rise. It is also argued that the US’ interventionist role in Asia-Pacific region is highly responsible for deterioration of China’s strategic environment.
Given the intractable nature of the problem in South China Sea, it is felt that China needs to engage all the claimant nations while working out a plausible solution, or else there is an increasing possibility of the area becoming a flashpoint with international consequences. It has been realised that the strategic approach of the ASEAN claimant nations would be highly dependent on the US to check China for maintaining the regional security order.
The last East Asia Summit (EAS) which was convened in Malaysia’s capital Kuala lumpur on November 22, could not offer any substantial solution to the dispute. The summit involved all the ten ASEAN members, four of which have territorial disputes in the sea, with eight other nations, including China and the US, which outright proclaims that it has national interest in safeguarding the freedom of navigation in South China Sea.
The heightened concern in the dispute has raised international alarm as China starts building manmade islands on the top of tiny rocks and reefs in the South China Sea that was already submerged in very high tide.
The UN Convention on the law of the Sea (UNClOS) does not entitle China to claim any territorial waters around it. It was surprising that no sooner had the leaders left the EAS, it was reported that the People’s liberation Army had dispatched a new logistics vessel for its troops in the artificial islands. In the meantime, a foreign ministry official in Beijing confirmed that it would continue building the manmade island.
Within the ASEAN, it is the Philippines which took the most vociferous stand against China on the South China Sea dispute. It spoke out for an out and out freedom of navigation in the disputed waters. The rest of the ASEAN members who are well aware about China’s aggressive posture normally favour engaging the US to check China in this maritime conflict.
Many of the ASEAN members are building up stronger ties with the US and Japan and also signing strategic partnership treaties among themselves. Recently, the Philippines and Vietnam, whose disputes with China are extremely sensitive, have concluded a strategic partnership treaty.
Such camaraderie among many of the South East Asian nations has provoked China to be more assertive in its actions. last month, the Philippines brought the dispute to The Hague and a tribunal is hearing China’s claims over South China Sea. China’s historic ‘nine dash line’ also touches Indonesia’s oil rich sea off the Natuna Island and it might force the latter to move the International Court of Justice.
Even Malaysia is strongly protesting against China’s new build-up in the South China Sea. Thus more or less, the South East Asian nations are standing up to China in this protracted conflict which could be more harmful for maintaining harmony among these nations.
But the most important aspect of the problem is that for most of these ASEAN countries China is their major trading partner and investor of foreign funds. Hence, this duel dependency of the ASEAN nations on both China and the US is further complicating the conflict zone in the South China Sea.
China remains adamant that it has got its sovereign territorial rights over South China Sea and whatever it is doing is within its own territory only. The intervention of foreign powers, particularly the US, is being viewed as a threat to China’s sovereignty and there is no question of freedom of navigation as America demands exist in the latter’s lexicon.
So the US intervention in any form is regarded as an incursion into China’s sovereign rights by the nationalists in Beijing. Indeed the Chinese nationalists increasingly blame the Government for perceived inaction and vigorously pursuing for more forces into the fray. While the US is constantly reasserting its presence in the Asia-Pacific region and making closer ties with countries like Vietnam and the Philippines, it is making China more suspicious about America’s interests in the region.
In the meantime, President Xi Jinping in a speech in Singapore last month had made it clear that islands in the South China Sea ‘have been China’s territory since ancient times’. He also cautioned that countries from outside the region should respect the need of Asian nations for a ‘peaceful and stable environment’ so that they could prosper rapidly. At home, the official Xinhua news agency reported the ‘outside countries’ mentioned by Xi as the US, which has openly criticised China’s endeavour to build artificial islands atop submerged islands in the South China Sea.
The US has officially made it clear that it has no intention to take sides in the contested maritime dispute of South China Sea but will surely ensure the freedom of navigation in the region. The US President acknowledged the concerns of the ASEAN nations about China’s actions in the South China Sea. He reiterated China’s long-term interests in the region and said ‘the idea of peaceful development is the inner gene of Chinese culture’. He is highly concerned about spreading the rumours about China threat to other nations in Asia-Pacific. To him, ‘This is either due to the ignorance of Chinese history, culture and current policy, or out of some misunderstanding and prejudice, and probably for some ulterior reasons’. It is very much clear that in an American made and dominant post-Cold War world, Beijing is finding it too difficult to grow and make its presence felt across the world.
With the emergence of China, it seems a new kind of cold war has already begun and this time, only the zone of conflict has been shifted to the East of Asia. Though China has grown today in both power and prestige, yet it must carefully note that only an amicable interaction and a positive engagement between China and US could survive the future of Asia in particular, else it would lead to a permanent power rivalry in the days to come.
China oversees a civilisational empire that includes Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hong Kong and displays strong propensity to include more territory like Taiwan and South China Sea. With rising tensions in South China Sea, many feel that China does not see itself as just another Nation-State among Nation-States.
Rather, it has a profound sense of itself as the centre of civilisation and conceives of itself as not just a country but a historically superior civilisation that deserves deference from other countries’ (Blumenthal 2015). However China’s ambition of becoming a peaceful power must be coincided with equal respect for sovereignty of all its neighbours and rest of the nations of the world.
(The writer is an independent political analyst based in Delhi)