Iran seems to be reaping the benefit of saving the US from attacking Assad
From Arab Spring to the civil war in Syria, events in West Asia have been hogging the media limelight for the last two years. But the interim nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 has not only made headlines, it has exposed the potential of the dark horse to tilt the balance of power in the region in its favour.
The resultant new order, if it takes birth, will not leave countries in the region untouched. However, considering Saudi Arabia’s clout in the Arab world, particularly for the two holiest shrines in the country, the US is unlikely to dump it altogether. But at the same time, the growing tension between Saudi Arabia and the US due to Obama’s unexpected friendly approach towards Iran is baffling political analysts.
Spin doctors are already presenting various possible outcomes the deal may produce in the next six months. A close analysis of the emerging situation raises a volley of questions.
First, what forced the US to soften its stand towards Iran so abruptly at the cost of its closest and most trusted ally in West Asia — Saudi ArabiaIJ
Second, is the US trying to make up leeway on Syria by holding out an olive branch to IranIJ
Third, why are regional players, particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel, angry over the deal, when the new moderate leadership in Iran is trying hard to shed its hawkish faceIJ
Fourth, what hopes does the interim nuclear deal present to West AsiaIJ
As far as the US is concerned, a number of issues — domestic and international — seem to have attenuated the aggressive approach of the US towards Iran and Assad. Though the US began its clandestine negotiations with Iran in 2011, two immediate events — feeble domestic economic conditions in America and leadership change in Iran — set the stage to look for a peaceful resolution on Iran and Syria.
Iraq and Afghanistan wars have already drained America economically, but the superpower didn’t want to show its weakness by letting Assad off hook. In this situation, it was left with Hobson’s choice — to be persuaded by the world leaders to postpone a military solution to the Syrian crisis. In the meanwhile, Iran worked behind-the-scenes; Russia and China tried to convince the US to find a middle path. America readily grabbed the opportunity and Assad was let off lightly for the moment. As the US saved its face on Syria with the help of Iran, softening of its stand on Iran seems natural.
Saudi Arabia and Israel are angry over the deal because the former can’t afford to lose its leadership in the Muslim-Arab world, while Israel is miffed as Iran is now on a par with it after getting global recognition for its nuclear programme. Therefore, the Iran nuclear deal may bring Israel closer to Sunni-majority countries led by Saudi Arabia to counter Iran’s influence.
If America does not address the concerns of Saudi Arabia and Israel, the conflict in the region will have unwanted repercussion on the region. While the US will lose its influence in the region, India, which is dependent on the Gulf countries for its energy requirement, will have buy fuel at higher cost.
(The writer is a research scholar)