The future scenario in Afghanistan appears to be very grim. The partition of that troubled nation, though tragic and unfortunate, may be a better outcome than that of one ruled by a rabid medieval Taliban
The US-led military troops’ quest for victory in Afghanistan is over. The earlier tough talk vis-Ã -vis the Taliban is now focussing on plans to allow it a way back to Afghanistan’s power structure and, Pakistan a role in facilitating the process.
But there is no sense of triumph in Pakistan which understands that an outright Taliban victory in Afghanistan may hurt its interests. However, a clear-cut Taliban win and establishment of its control across Afghanistan after the withdrawal of Nato troops is unlikely. This time the ethnic minorities are better prepared and armed to defend their interests after the US exit.
In Pakistan, there is a growing realisation that peace in North-Western Khyber Pakhtun- khwa province and the federally administered areas will be impossible, without a peaceful settlement in Afghanistan.
The US hopes that after the withdrawal of its troops, the Afghan National Army will be able to take charge of the situation. But the performance of the Afghan National Army so far has been inconsistent. It is doubtful if it will be able to hold its own against the forces of Haqqani network and the Mullah Omar-led Quetta Shura. It takes time and a great deal of money and effort to build up an efficient Army.
On November 2012, Pakistan released nine Afghan Taliban prisoners during the visit of the Afghan High Peace Council led by Jalaluddin Rabbani. This was viewed as a good gesture on Pakistan’s part. After being blamed for the chaos in that country, Pakistan feels compelled to improve its image. It hopes that its positive role in the peace process will gain the trust of various groups in Afghanistan, including the Northern Alliance.
But its main interest is to ensure that the Afghan Government does not become an Indian ally. It fears that such an alliance would encircle Pakistan and deprive it of strategic depth, needed to deter a hypothetical Indian invasion.
Interestingly though, within Pakistan, the old notion that ‘India is and will remain an eternal enemy’, is changing. Most of the political parties in Pakistan today favour a resolution to the conflict with India. Hence, a seemingly less paranoid Pakistan is prepared to settle for a Government in Afghanistan that it can tolerate. And for this, talks are more useful than war-mongering, as instability in Afghanistan would hurt Pakistan more than any other country.
Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has said that Pakistan’s greatest threats come from domestic terrorism and that no state can afford a parallel system of governance and militias. But elements in the Pakistan Army even now remain wedded to jihadi proxies and may be tempted, when American troops are withdrawn, to direct some of the jihadi groups against India, risking fresh conflict between the two neighbours.
Pakistan is also facing a severe energy crisis and hopes to benefit from the energy-rich Central Asia. This has not been possible because of the volatile situation in Afghanistan and so a stable Afghanistan is actually in Pakistan’s interest.
For the US, Pakistan’s cooperation is necessary for its safe exit from Afghanistan, hence, it is now much more lenient towards Pakistan. It has released almost $700 million in military fund with a promise of more.
But negotiations with the Taliban for a peaceful settlement in Afghanistan will be prolonged and complex. It is important to understand that the Afghan Taliban perceives itself as a winner of the decade-long insurgency and demands a share in the Government and establishment of Shari’at.
It remains to be seen if the Afghan Government and other stakeholders are willing to fulfil these demands. The US and Taliban cannot be the only players in the room, other neighbours, including Iran, Central Asian republics, Russia, China and India cannot be ignored.
last month, there was trilateral dialogue in Moscow involving India, China and Russia. It was prompted by the growing fear of the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan. China which has won rights to exploit and develop oil fields in Amudaria basin in Afghanistan, frowns upon militant activities as that would impinge on its economic interest in Afghanistan.
For India, the endgame in Afghanistan will pose the biggest foreign policy challenge. The US was India’s close partner on Afghanistan till very recently, but has begun making overtures to Pakistan. India disagrees with the expectation that the Taliban would become a regular political party and will not seek to overwhelm the Government with its ideology. India will continue to insist on the red lines agreed for reconciliation — renunciation of Al Qaeda and acceptance of Afghan Constitution.
The future scenario in Afghanistan appears to be very grim. The regime in Kabul will, in all likelihood, collapse and Afghanistan may be sucked in a prolonged civil war, which will tear it apart and balkanise it into numerous warlord-controlled zones. The partition of Afghanistan, though tragic and unfortunate, may be a better outcome than an Afghanistan ruled by a rabid medieval Taliban.
(The writer is a former Director General of NHRC, and, former Director of National Police Academy)