The Congress clearly appears more comfortable in having Sonia Gandhi lead the party at this critical stage
The decision taken by the Congress Working Committee to extend Ms Sonia Gandhi’s tenure as the party president for at least a year, has put an end to the speculation that had begun after Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi returned from sabbatical. It was expected that he might take over the reins of the party. It also implies that the party has accepted status quo as the best course under the present circumstances and is willing to bet on Ms Gandhi rather than on her son.
Is there a problem with the leadership transitionIJ Why is the party ditheringIJ Why is it that the handing over of the baton has been indefinitely postponedIJ Is it because the party is not yet ready to accept Mr GandhiIJ Or is it waiting for a better political momentIJ Is Mr Gandhi himself hesitantIJ Perhaps, there is a transition problem. Ms Gandhi wants her son to take over the party’s leadership, but the latter wants to shed the old baggage and start with his own set of advisors.
While technical issues are officially quoted, the tussle between the older and the younger generation within the party is the main reason, despite the docility of the Congress leaders in accepting the dynasty. The older generation, which is dependent on Ms Gandhi for its relevance, has managed to put off the decision, at least for now. The other group is the ‘Rahul lao Congress bachao’ younger generation group which is impatient.
This group is certainly disappointed that once again there is many a slip between the cup and the lip for its young leader. Since there is an emotional chord that binds the mother and the son, the timing will be decided only by the two.
According to insiders, Mr Gandhi himself is a bit reluctant to take over, when Ms Gandhi continues to be quite functional. They argue that after all, Mr Gandhi is the de facto boss. He is providing the leadership by guiding the State Congress committee, the National Students Union of India and the Youth Congress. He is taking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and also the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. When the party is in a confrontation mode, with Mr Gandhi leading the attacks, a change of leadership at this point can stir a hornets’ nest and open another front for fire-fighting.
Also, there is a view that the present political climate is not good for Mr Gandhi to take over. The immediate test for the party is the Bihar election, where the Congress does not have much at stake, but is a part of the ‘grand alliance’. If the alliance loses, a part of the blame will surely come on Mr Gandhi.
Also, the following year will be a bigger test for the Congress as States such as West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala will be going to polls. Chances are not very bright for the Congress in any of them.
Interestingly, the party is not fully convinced of the leadership quality of Mr Gandhi. He had come up with several bold ideas like the democratisation of the party’s youth wing, the NSUI, enrolment of the members, selection of candidates for the Assembly and lok Sabha polls. But unfortunately, these experiments have failed miserably.
Moreover, Ms Gandhi’s acceptability in the political spectrum is much higher than her son’s. She proved her worth by keeping the party united from the time she came to head it, and also keeping it in power from 2004 to 2014. Moreover, she has developed an equation with leaders of many non-BJP parties who belong to her generation rather than to her son’s. Mr Gandhi has not been comfortable with coalition politics.
All these prove that Mr Gandhi has some more distance to go before he can measure up to Ms Gandhi even within the party. First, Mr Gandhi can prove his mettle by leading the party in Parliament. Second, he can revive the organisation. Despite his going round the country, the party is in shambles in many States like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Odisha and Haryana to name a few. Does the Congress have any strategy for the 2019 lok Sabha electionIJ Congress strategists believe that if they simply sit tight and wait for the failure of the BJP, the Congress can can bounce back. Whether Mr Gandhi is number one or number two, it is all in the family. What the Congress needs is a long-term as well as a short-term strategy to remain relevant in the coming Assembly polls. The only way the party can revive is by becoming strong in the States which were once its citadels.