Venezuela is fast slipping into the centre of inflation, homicide and scarcity. But what scares South America most is the pitfalls of a dying and dogged remnants of Fidel Castro-style socialism. Too agonising. Really sad. However, till date, the beleaguered President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, is either not understanding the writing on the walls or may be thinking that he would be able to avert the current crisis in the oil-rich nation. Today, more than half of country’s population are not willing to bear the burden of false promises and the atrocities fanned by Maduro. It is always intriguing to find why most of the socialist leaders — from Vladimir lenin to Vladimir Putin in Russia, Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Slobodan Milosevic in former Yugoslavia, Fidel Castro in Cuba, and Hugo Chavez to Maduro in Venezuela — are filled with a strange utopian idea that their countries and populace are no less than their private properties. However, today, in an age of post-globalisation wherein the immense impact of information and communication technology is spreading the waves of freedom and wellness across the globe, Maduro seems unlikely to be able to keep his people in the dark any longer.
What ails VenezuelaIJ Is it the impact of the demise of the charismatic ChavezIJ Is Maduro paranoid about the current legislature wherein the Opposition has won majorityIJ Or is it the beginning of the end of another socialist regime in latin AmericaIJ It is worthwhile to find the reasons behind the outcry of dying millions in Venezuela.
From US President Donald Trump, Putin to the European Union (EU) leadership, all are busy turning their attention towards the restive West Asia, wars in Africa and a rising China. And, the worst, it seems is the condition of the EU, whose leadership is fast grappling with the impending crisis of an upcoming Brexit, mass migration from the war zones of West Asia, Afghanistan, Africa and Pakistan, an ever greater colossal rise of far right, and finally, the vengeance of the jehadis against the common Europeans with their new age “stabbing intifada”. Therefore, the shocking images and actions of repression in the streets of capital Caracas and across major cities of Venezuela are not receiving due attention from the global leadership and governance system, including the much publicised establishment of Trump. Maduro and his goons are taking full advantage of international inaction towards the misadventure against their own people. Therefore,
what ails Venezuela today is not only a deep economic crisis, but also a failed socialist leadership.
For sure, the demise of Chavez has a strong impact on the current crisis in Venezuela. Maduro neither has charisma like his predecessor nor does he have qualities of a true statesmanship. A former bus driver chosen by dying Chavez as his successor in 2013 completely ruined both Chavism and stability that Chavez had brought since his coming to power in 1999. Though Chavez also proposed a new Constitution entailing the extension of citizens’ rights and the powers of the President, the move was supported by huge majorities in referendums. But when Chavez died and Maduro proposed the same, he took a different path. In contrast to Chavez’s Constitution, his would be called by “presidential decree” and not by referendum. As of now, if he moves as per his previous planning, the new Constituent Assembly will take over on July 30. So, the Opposition-led National Assembly is all out on a collision course
with the office of the President dominated by the Chavistas.
Maduro is paranoid about the strength of the Opposition in the current legislature. That’s why, even before the election in 2015, he said that if the Opposition were to gain majority in the National Assembly, “We would not give up the revolution and we would govern with the people in a civil-military union.” But fearing a backlash, he later added, “We would do it with the Constitution in hand”. It clearly highlighted his hidden intention and eventually he displayed it to his countrymen. But then the President either ignored the provisions enshrined in the Constitution or he is not aware of it. In either case, it is sad and alarming for a country like Venezuela. The current Constitution does not have any provision for a “civil-military” Government. It also nowhere says or authorises the Maduro administration to disregard the outcome of a democratic election. In fact, Maduro quite often dismissed the notion of an electoral victory of the Opposition in his cryptic words as “negated and transmuted scenario”. However, he has remained confident so far despite majority of the opinion polls showing an outright public rejection of the Government in general and the President in particular. The reasons for such deep self-assurance of Maduro are: a) he knows quite well that he can use massive public funds and resources at his disposal for derailing any Opposition attempt to oust him; b) aggressive and frequent use of dirty tricks against the Opposition leaders may help him defame them in public; c) the sudden attacks launched by Maduro’s “armed people’s militias” on Opposition protest marches and at times, elimination of their leaders can create scare in public; d) the Government’s strict censorship of all media outlets, including TV, radio, magazines and newspapers, can directly restrict the spread of the public outrage across the country; and e) inaction displayed by the global leadership, particularly when it comes to Trump Administration, limiting only to strong condemnation, will only bolster Maduro to carry on his anti-democratic activities.
Precisely, the current regime of Maduro has not been able to gain electoral victories against the country’s strong Opposition. Even, after the death of Chavez, Maduro could hardly manage an electoral victory in 2013, which barely had a margin of nearly 1.5 per cent over Henrique Capriles, the Opposition candidate for the office of the President. So, apart from inheriting a decaying economy and a spike in unemployment rate from the previous regime, Maduro has also a clear “democratic deficit” starting from his early days in office.
Today, the Maduro administration has termed the youngsters as “mortal enemies” of the state. Probably they are. They are simply demanding basic minimum rights for their survival and a firm say in selecting the future President of the country. Indeed, they are the vanguards of the Venezuelan society who do not want to bear the regressive socialist regime of the country which is in power for 17 long years for now.
Maduro may possibly fail in bringing a new Constitution for bolstering his grip on power. Apart from the rising Opposition, the cracks have already developed in his political ranks. For instance, luisa Ortega, the Attorney General and a long time Chavista, has started criticising Maduro and his madness. She is completely apprehensive of the shape of the proposed Constituent Assembly (CA) by Maduro. To her the new CA will “complete the definitive dismantling of democracy”.
Beyond this what happened in the heart of the capital Caracas on July 5, on the very Independence Day of Venezuela, is just shocking. On this very day, nearly 206 years ago, the Venezuelans cherished the freedom of their country from long colonial rule of Spain. But on the same day, the schizophrenic supporters of embattled Maduro attacked the Opposition parliamentarians, journalists inside the National Assembly building with sharp weapons and left many of them seriously injured. Though Maduro immediately condemned the incident and promised an investigation into the incident, the international community is very well aware of his dirty tricks. What has prompted the Government-backed militias to storm Parliament is that the discussion over an unofficial plebiscite was about to start by the lawmakers. Despite the violence, the Opposition is going to carry out their dialogue which in turn will urge the nation to move toward an election seeking to
oust Maduro.
Further, other indicators for his administration are also very grim. Till now more than 85 people have died in street violence. With unemployment rate set to cross 25 per cent and acute food shortage persisting, many Venezuelans have started fleeing the country. Most of them are crossing over to the neighbouring Colombia. Recent statistics show that the Venezuelans are the highest asylum seekers in America. More than 14,700 Venezuelans sought asylum in the 2016, higher than 160 per cent in 2015, when only 5,605 Venezuelans applied for asylum.
Nevertheless, Venezuela’s true dictator is masquerading as a democrat. Its constant efforts to import the revolution from Cuba have failed miserably. Its young generation will bring home the dawn that the country has been waiting for decades. Hope it comes. After all, Maduro is no Chavez. The oil prices have already plummeted. There is nothing much for him to defend the Bolivarian Revolution.
(The writer is an expert on international affairs)