Despite the important positions he held over the years, the former Union Minister couldn’t match the stature of his father
The Congress split in Tamil Nadu spells trouble for the 129-year-old Congress. Although the Congress high command has described it as a result of factional fight, there is more to it than meets the eye, as it has far-reaching impact on the State as well as on national politics. With some State Assembly elections scheduled for 2016, political parties are positioning themselves. The birth of the new party (yet to be named) headed by former Union Shipping Minister GK Vasan is a classic example of this. The Congress won just five of the 234 seats in the 2011 Assembly elections. It was routed along with all other parties in the last lok Sabha election, with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam grabbing 37 out of 39 seats, and remaining two going to the BJP. Its vote share also came down to just 4.7 per cent.
Mr Vasan, the son of late GK Moopanar, who was known as the king-maker in the Congress, had split the party in 1996, protesting against then Congress president and Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao’s decision on an electoral alliance with the AIADMK. Such was the anger over the alliance that his newly-formed Tamil Maanila Congress, in collaboration with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, swept the Assembly and the lok Sabha elections, with J Jayalalithaa herself losing in a wave. Even so, Moopanar could not keep the TMC afloat, more so after the DMK ditched him and joined hands with the BJP in 1999 lok Sabha election. Avoiding an alliance with the BJP, Moopanar took the TMC to the very same AIADMK in the 2001 elections, arguing that communalism was a greater evil than corruption. He died in August that year and his son Mr Vasan formally merged the TMC with the Congress soon thereafter.
There is no doubt that the Congress has not been able to find its feet in Tamil Nadu since 1967 when it lost power to the DMK. Since then, it has been riding piggyback either on the DMK or the AIADMK. Despite its weakness, the Tamil Nadu unit of the Congress has always been ridden with factionalism. Earlier it was Moopanar versus Vazhapadi Ramamurthy, and now it’s Mr Vasan versus Mr Elangovan. There are also other groups. The Congress made Mr Vasan as Pradesh Congress Committee president, then a Minister in the UPAI and UPAII regimes, but he was not happy. Dissatisfaction had been brewing for some time, and when Mr Elangovan was appointed as the new PCC chief this week, Mr Vasan rebelled.
Of course Mr Vasan, despite all the important positions he held, could not level to the stature of his father. Will the new outfit floated by Mr Vasan succeedIJ There are many who doubt it because times are different and Mr Vasan is not Moopanar who had friends across the spectrum. First Moopanar had a mass base whereas Mr Vasan never contested an election. Now Mr Vasan is invoking K Kamaraj, claiming that the high command had asked the PCC to remove the pictures of Kamaraj in the membership cards issued by the TNCC. The real position is that even if Kamaraj were alive, the Congress could not bounce back. Moreover many senior leaders like P Chidambaram and Jayanthi Natarajan, who went out with Moopanar, are not with Mr Vasan now.
Second, the Opposition votes are getting fractured, which will give an advantage to the AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa, who is already getting sympathy after her conviction. Apart from the DMK and the AIADMK — the two dominant Dravidian parties there are smaller outfits like the Pattali Makkal Katchi, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, and other smaller parties. Mr Vasan’s party may be the new entrant. These Dravidian parties believe in Tamil political identity, Tamil cultural nationalism and north-south perceptions.
The BJP has been ambitious to expand in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Odisha, Jammu & Kashmir and other States, riding on the Modi wave. Although it had been trying to find its foot in the south, it had not been successful for the past many decades. The first BJP Government was formed in Karnataka in 2008, but that Government moved from crisis to crisis, ridden with corruption and factionalism. The BJP alliance now has two MPs from Tamil Nadu in the lok Sabha and is hoping to expand the front with the DMDK, PMK and now perhaps Mr Vasan’s new outfit. The BJP is also trying to occupy the space after Jayalalithaa has been convicted while Mr M Karunanidhi’s family is facing corruption charges. The problem is that the BJP has no charismatic leader to project against the likes Jayalalithaa or Mr Karunanidhi or even Mr Vijayakanth. Moreover the BJP is seen as a Brahminical and north Indian party and has no Dravidian touch, unlike some other parties.
Mr Vasan’s political options have increased now as the Opposition in the State will certainly embrace his new party, but he has to keep his new outfit afloat for the next 18 months. He has attempted a rather big gamble. Whether Mr Vasan succeeds or not, the Congress has lost. The rebellion suggests more revolt in the days to come from other States. It can ignore the danger signals only at its own peril. The Congress leadership is smug, thinking that once the disenchantment with Mr Modi starts, it would benefit. It will be living in a fool’s paradise, as the Congress is already sinking. It needs brutal surgery and a strong leadership.