Despite the recent controversial turn in US-Pakistan relations under Donald Trump, it must be kept in mind that the symbiotic links between the two states are not really diminishing, writes Aakanksha Nehra
A lot has transpired in US-Pakistan relations since Donald Trump entered the White House as the US President. Various analysis and assessments have been doing the rounds since the Trump presidency commenced. For instance, Pakistan is now being being hard-pressed by the US for its role in the war on terror.
Pakistan has been a non-NATO ally of the United States since the commencement of the global war on terror in 2001 with the Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan ( now Operation Resolute Support). The US has increasingly shown scepticism regarding Pakistan's approach and sincerity in fighting terrorism. This has risen to be a major hiccup in the development of US-Pakistan ties.
Although Pakistan’s support is pivotal for America’s presence and role in Afghanistan, the differences between the US and Pakistan have further stretched out in the recent past, coming out most overtly in a tweet by President Trump on January 2, 2018, “The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies and deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!”
A report authored by David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Frank Pabian from the Institute of Science and International Security — a US-based international nuclear proliferation watchdog, stated that Pakistan’s application to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) should be denieddue to Pakista’s illegal nuclear procurements abroad and refusal to split its civil and military atomic programs. This has only led to an increment in terrorist activities across borders. Hence, much of the public criticism for Pakistan by the Trump Administration and its public has been over the outcome of US aid to Pakistan.
The politics of aid in US-Pakistan relations is not a novel episode, but these recent events over Trump’s transactional turn have pulled up the relationship for more public scrutiny, providing a pedestal for apprehensions and questions over the future of ties between the two countries. The politics of foreign assistance has remained a fundamental feature of US foreign policy throughout the Cold War era to attain global leadership and circumvent Soviet Union’s influence. And speaking of Pakistan in particular, the US provided an enormous amount of two billion dollars military aid and three billion dollars of economic assistance to set afloat an anti-Soviet insurgency in Afghanistan.
After the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, the relevance of Pakistan in US foreign policy seemed to wane a little. But after the 9/11 attacks, Pakistan resurfaced as a frontline state for the US global war on terror. Thus, began another phase of US aid to Pakistan in the name of fighting terrorism, which has now unfolded into Trump era’s and its impact on US-Pakistan ties.
Pakistan has received assistance of billions of dollars under the Coalition Support Fund. However, Pakistan has been re-evaluated to play a “double game” in terms of selectively targeting terrorist groups and showing no sincerity in terms of fighting the Taliban, which it sees as a tool for maintaining strategic depth in Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s tolerance for the dreaded Haqqani network has been a major sore point in US-Pakistan ties and as seen in recent times, has gradually affected the nature of the relationship. America’s decision to block a $300 million military aid to Pakistan after its May 2016 drone strike in Balochistan, which killed the Taliban leader Mullah Mansoor created tensions in the already quivering ties between the two states.
While on one hand, Pakistan was seeking clarification from the US for the surgical strike within their territory, the US raised questions on how the Taliban leader was able to transit through the Pakistani territory with such ease. Not only the military aid, American economic developmental aid to Pakistan in terms of USAID programmes for humanitarian response, power generation, literacy, maternal health and higher education initiatives has also dwindled. There are no doubt that these shifts in US-Pakistan ties will have an impact on the regional security scenario, most particularly in Afghanistan; this infact will also influence regional partnerships/alliances.
For instance, in the nature of China-Pakistan nexus. All these trends will have serious implications for India’s foreign policy. Thus warranting a nuanced assessment on New Delhi’s part regarding the changing events in US-Pakistan relationship.
The recent announcements made by Trump are not a testimony to the withdrawal of American support for the existing projects in Pakistan. This can be assessed from America's approach to the controversial China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This economic corridor, which is claimed to be the biggest project of Belt and Road Initiative till date, transverses through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), leading India to raise objections to this project. The absence of any sort of mention by the US for withdrawal of support from the CPEC raises a key question as to whether the US is sincere in putting Pakistan's feet on fire as far as the latter's record on counterterrorism is concerned or is Pakistan still too strategically important for the US to be able to turn Trump's rhetoric into reality.
The disturbances in the bilateral ties between USA and Pakistan are a result of a multitude of factors. It can be assessed that with dynamic changes in global as well as regional geopolitics, the symbiotic needs of these two states are declining, not diminishing. like most bilateral relationships of the US that have been feeling jolts from the uncertain style of Trump, US-Pakistan relationship in recent times, has been facing similar disruptions which go beyond the diplomatic caves of just these two states.
While denying Pakistan’s admission to the NSG, the US also put forth a stance that any state, especially China, should not provide Pakistan with nuclear procurements and non-fulfilment of this clause would indicate a violation of the commitments of NSG.
Nevertheless, it must be noted that the issues brought forth during Trump’s presidency regarding Pakistan’s double-faced approach to fighting terrorism is nothing new and the brunt of which has been largely felt by India vis-à-vis Pakistan’s support for anti-India terrorist groups. Though the Trump Administration has taken a harder stance towards Pakistan and has initiated stricter measures to bring it in line, its success remains ambivalent. Till what extent will the US be able to pressurise Pakistan and turn words into real action for the sake of regional peace and securityIJ Will military and economic diplomacy prevail over strategizing measures to fight against the three evil forces of terrorism, extremism and separatismIJ
(The writer is independent researcher, M.A. in European and International Studies, King’s College london)