The Prime Minister’s US trip has been high on symbolism but it must lay the groundwork for substantial deliverables. Getting the US Congress to amend its immigration Bill, which hurts Indian interests, is one of the them
US President Barack Obama just hosted Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House. Prior to that, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel visited India. American politicians have become very good at saying things like, “India is a great democracy”; “Indians have a very rich culture”; “You Indian Americans are so smart; In medicine, engineering, IT, business, you name it, you are exceptional”; “You Indian Americans contribute so much to our economy”. Then they have a few photo-clicks and walk away with thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from the Indian American community. But when it comes to real policy matters, real legislation — where rubber meets the road — it is a different matter.
As an Indian American, I have been watching American politics for the last 45 years. The only other person I know who has been in the US longer than me and is involved in public affairs is Mr Ramesh Patel, chairman of Federation of Indian Associations. He once remarked: “Indian Americans are a free ATM for American politicians”.
I am sure we are soon going to hear the term, ‘Modinomics’, an Indian version of ‘Reaganomics’, but it will be nice to hear of a new Modi Doctrine of ‘trust but verify’. After all, the Wall Street Journal has named Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the ‘Ronald Reagan of India’, and President Reagan did say: “Trust but verify”.
let’s talk about the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernisation Act of 2013, encouraged by President Obama and passed primarily by Democrats in the US Senate. Fortunately, it is blocked at the moment by the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
This Bill affects the lives of 5,00,000 Indian software engineers working on temporary H1 and l1 visas in the US. Half to all of them may have to be shipped back to India, affecting the latter’s GDP negatively by about 1.5 per cent per year. That is a loss of $30 billion per year.
Here is what has been written about this Bill so far: Mr Som Mittal, president of the National Association of Software and Services Companies of India, says that the Bill “almost amounts to punitive treatment to our sector.” The IT sector makes up about four per cent of India’s GDP at present. The US accounts for 60 per cent of India’s software exports.
A recent JP Morgan report suggests that the immigration Bill, in its current form, has worrying aspects for the Indian economy. It says: “Our estimated adverse impact on India’s FY2015 GDP (including the downstream multiplier impact) due to the outplacement clause in the immigration Bill at 0.3 per cent to four per cent is large enough for the Government of India to get worried about the immigration Bill.” The report adds: “Even more worrying, perhaps, is the adverse implications this finding has on downstream lower-level employment this sector generates.”
The immigration Bill, designed to give a path to citizenship to almost 20 million illegal workers primarily from south of the US border with Mexico, places draconian restrictions on all companies that sponsor and hire H1 and l1 visa holders.
There is another aspect of the Bill that has been overlooked by most. There are almost 5,000 Indian American-owned IT firms in the US, with an average of 50 employees, that could be forced to go out of business. These small businesses are significant job and revenue creators for the US economy. No wonder, the US Chamber of Commerce is also against the anti-India provisions of this Bill.
The Bill also has two clauses that are bad for Indian American families. It eliminates the ability of US citizens to sponsor their brothers and sisters, as well as sons and daughters of more than 31 years of age, for permanent residency status. Despite personal requests from then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during his meeting with President Obama in 2013, the Democrats have made no attempts to change the Bill.
We must also not forget that even today, the US State Department has not officially lifted the ban on Mr Modi’s personal visa. The Prime Minister must urge the Obama Administration to take a firm stand against the anti-Indian provisions of the immigration Bill.
Even though most in the Republican leadership in the US Congress, such as Congressman Pete Sessions, oppose the new restrictions, the Modi regime should make every attempt to continue to develop support on Capitol Hill so as to do away with the anti-Indian provisions of the immigration Bill. Or else, one morning India will wake up and find that the Bill has been passed primarily due to relentless political pressure.
(The author is founder of the National Indian American Public Policy Institute, and chair of the Indian American Advisory Council of the House Republican Conference of the US Congress)