The Congress and the BJP are locked in a bitter and close fight in the Uttarakhand Assembly election. Both have their respective strengths and weaknesses. Meanwhile, the voters have seen and tested leaders of both the parties
With the Assembly elections to five States announced, Uttarakhand’s political scenario has also started gearing up for the electoral battle. From the point of view of economic development, though Uttarakhand is still under-developed, but from the perspective of political manipulation and factionalism, which Uttarakhand has received in legacy from its predecessor Uttar Pradesh, it is indeed highly developed.
The political drama being witnessed in the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh took place in Uttarakhand during March 2016, when the ruling Harish Rawat-led Congress Government faced the threat of dethroning by a coup planned by its rebel MlAs under the leadership of Harak Singh Rawat. With the expulsion of the nine rebel MlAs from the Congress, the Harish Rawat Government survived to complete its tenure. But the rebels who joined the BJP kept the Government on tenterhooks.
The first elected Government in 2002 in Uttarakhand, after its creation in 2000, was formed by the Congress under the leadership of the seasoned politician, ND Tiwari, known also as the ‘development man’. But in 2007, the Congress could get only 21 seats and a vote percentage of 29.7 per cent; the BJP had a vote share of 31. 9 per cent. The BJP with 31 seats formed the Government with the help of the BSP. However, in the 2012 election, the BJP could not maintain its position. The Congress with a vote share of 33.7 per cent and 32 seats formed the Government with the help of the three BSP and four independent MlAs. Actually the resolve by all the anti-BJP parties in 2012 to keep the BJP out of power and the internal factionalism in the BJP as well as the anti-incumbency factor, did not allow the BJP to gain power despite holding 31 seats and bringing in BC Khanduri just before the Assembly election.
The slogan of Uttarakhand key vikas key liye Khanduri hain jaruri, became a laughing stock as Khanduri, who was considered necessary for the BJP’s survival in the State and a chief ministerial candidate, lost his own seat due to internal sabotage and rivalry.
Prime Minister Narendera Modi’s hugely successful rally held recently in Dehradun after demonetisation has given the hint that the BJP will try its best to avenge the defeat of 2012. Pre-poll survey results also indicate towards a Modi wave which is likely to bring the BJP back to power in Uttarakhand. But the lack of a capable leadership and neutralising the claims of the nine rebel leaders of the Congress, including former Chief Minister Vijay Bahuguna and Harak Singh Rawat, who joined the BJP after the political drama of March 2016 that almost brought down the Congress-led Harish Rawat Government, have made the BJP’s task difficult.
The State BJP leadership is divided on launching these leaders (some of them have a controversial past) from the BJP platform by putting aside the claim of dedicated leaders. The probability of internal sabotage on certain seats cannot be ruled out, and this could cost the BJP heavily. Modi’s request to leaders of the BJP to refrain from seeking tickets for their relatives, in his speech given in the recent meeting of the national executive of the party, also clearly reflects the hurdles, pressures and difficulties in finalising the list of candidates and the distribution of tickets.
However, despite factionalism and internal dissent, the Congress has some advantage, as the party has preferred to project Harish Rawat as the chief minsterial candidate. The publicity material of the Congress also projects Harish Rawat as the main face along with Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi. The slogan, Main nahin hum, is aimed to give the message that the Congress is not focussed on the personality of a single person but believes in taking all together. This strategy is also aimed at neutralising the pressure from the other stalwarts of the party as well.
Currently, the BJP has at least half a dozen claimants including four former Chief Ministers like BC Khanduri, BS Koshyari, Ramesh Pokhriyal ‘Nishak’ and Vijay Bahuguna, who was the Congress’s Chief Minister till 2014, before he joined the BJP in March 2016. Besides these four, two more aspirants, namely, Satpal Maharaj and Harak Singh Rawat, who left Congress to join the BJP, are also in the line of fire. Hence it would be extremely difficult for the BJP to decide on the chief ministerial candidate if it gets the requisite number of seats.
Besides these parties, the independents with a vote share of 12 per cent in 2012 election, have also a potential to change the electoral possibilities.
(The writer is professor of Political Science, HNB Garhwal University, Srinagar, Garhwal, Uttarakhand)